SPC AC 090715
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 AM CDT FRI APR 09 2004
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
   DRT 30 SE ACT 35 SSW TXK 40 WSW UOX 30 SSW HSV 45 SE BHM 30 S MOB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW FHU 25 NE PHX
   25 SW CEZ 20 SSW RKS 30 S WEY 45 E HLN 35 ENE LWT 50 N SHR 15 SSW
   DGW 15 E 4FC 10 SE ALS 50 ESE ABQ 35 SW ROW 10 SE MAF 20 WNW BWD 40
   ENE SPS 35 SSE END 10 NNW BVO 25 W ARG 15 NNE BNA 15 SSE BKW 25 ENE
   ORF ...CONT... 30 SSW CRE 20 NNW AGS 25 SW CSG 40 SSE MOB.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN/ERN TX ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY...AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SAGS SEWD INTO
   THE WRN GREAT LAKES.  A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT
   NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS
   DURING THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY FEATURE WILL BE STRONG
   COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS
   RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING.  A LOW CENTER WILL TRACK EWD ALONG
   THIS BOUNDARY FROM NERN TX...ACROSS NRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
   AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...SRN/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   TWO DAYS OF SUSTAINED SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING A VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER INTO TX AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  EXPECT HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   LARGE REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE EARLY TO MID
   AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXPECTED TO SHIFT
   EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO TN THROUGH THE DAY.  SEVERAL AREAS/CLUSTERS
   OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF
   SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ALONG AND
   JUST BEHIND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHERE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND
   CAPPING REMAINS WEAK.  BROAD ZONE OF 40-50 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT AND
   MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINES AND/OR SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
   VALLEY WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATER AND CAP WEAKEST...WITH
   ACTIVITY PERSISTING ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND OFF
   THE UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THE EVENING.  ERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD BE LIMITED BY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER/INCREASED STABILITY OVER
   THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE CAROLINAS WHERE A
   SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
   INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORT
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
   
   FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL/SRN
   TX AS HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...SEA BREEZE...UPSLOPE
   FLOW WEAKEN STRONG CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SSEWD AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
   EVENING.
   
   ..EVANS.. 04/09/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z