SPC AC 231733
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
   UIN 40 SSE P35 15 ENE FNB 40 S SUX SUX 30 SSW SPW 20 SW MCW 45 NW
   DBQ 30 ESE DBQ 40 SW RFD 15 WSW BMI 40 ESE UIN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW
   ACY 30 ENE CXY 15 NNW IPT 25 NNW JHW 60 N ROC 30 WSW SLK 20 NW RUT
   30 W EEN 20 SSE BDL 15 ESE ISP.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
   FNT 25 SSE DTW 35 WNW DAY 45 SW LUK 25 NW TYS 40 SW CSV 30 W HOP 25
   S TBN 20 N JLN 20 E ICT 10 SE HUT 10 WSW CNK 30 NNE GRI 65 W YKN 15
   SW BKX 25 NE RST 20 NNW MBS 30 ENE FNT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW DAB CTY 35 WSW
   TLH 20 SW TOI 20 S CBM 35 SW UOX 25 W LIT 25 ESE MLC 25 S ADM 30 W
   SEP 45 N JCT 35 W SJT 15 S BGS 45 NNE BGS 45 E AMA 40 ESE LBL 30 ENE
   DDC RSL 30 SSW HLC 55 ENE LAA LHX 30 S MTJ 35 ESE 4HV 45 ESE ELY 35
   NNE BAM 70 NNW LOL 35 SW TVL 35 NW SAC 20 ENE ACV 25 NNE OTH 25 ENE
   HQM 10 SSE SEA 20 WSW YKM 30 NW PDT 35 NE S80 35 W MQM 20 WNW WRL 50
   NNW DGW 15 N BFF 25 SSE AIA 20 SSE MHN 20 WSW ANW 20 WNW PIR JMS 15
   ENE GFK 30 E INL ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 30 ENE PSM.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF IA...EXTREME NRN MO AND EXTREME NWRN IL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VLY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY...NERN PA
   AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MS VLY WILL
   TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS
   UPSTREAM IMPULSE EJECTS EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY MONDAY
   NIGHT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD TROUGH WILL CROSS CNTRL
   NY BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH THE OH
   VLY.  TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NWD INTO ERN
   NEB...SRN IA/NRN MO AS ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
   DISTURBANCE.  THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY
   EARLY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING FRONT EXPECTED TO SURGE SEWD INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...MID MO VLY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GREAT LAKES AREA...
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
   EPISODE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO VLY INTO THE UPPER MS VLY MONDAY
   AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
   
   H5 HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS
   AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE LOW LEVEL
   RESPONSE WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN ADVECTING MID-UPPER 60S
   SURFACE DEW POINTS NWWD INTO ERN NEB AND SWRN IA MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
   THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES AOA 3500
   J/KG.  SOME CONCERN EXISTS ON THE RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
   RETARDING HEATING ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT CONSENSUS
   AMONG THE MODELS LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE IN STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS
   DEVELOPING NWD INTO THE MID MO VLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   AS CINH IS ERODED BY HEATING...TSTM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR
   SOMEWHERE OVER ERN NEB/SERN SD AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS
   GIVEN 50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
   A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR WITH INITIAL STORMS FROM ERN
   NEB INTO CNTRL/SRN IA WHERE HODOGRAPHS WILL EXHIBIT VERY FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE VCNTY THE WARM FRONT AND LOWERING LCLS. 
   
   A TREND TOWARD MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
   OVERNIGHT AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
   IA/EXTREME SRN WI AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD LOWER MI...NRN IL AND NRN
   IND. 
   
   ...ERN KS/NRN MO SWWD INTO OK...
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP/BACKBUILD ALONG SEWD MOVING
   COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION FROM NRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO NCNTRL
   OK MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO
   SUPERCELLS DURING THE EVENING...BUT LIKELY TREND TOWARD CLUSTERS
   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ
   INCREASES.  OTHER STORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLD SUPERCELLS...COULD DEVELOP
   SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WRN OK LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE
   HAIL.  THESE MAY MERGE WITH THE SWD MOVING STORMS LATER IN THE
   EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL OK/SERN KS.
   
   ...LWR OH/TN VLYS...
   TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LWR OH/TN
   VLYS AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS IS A
   CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK GIVEN THAT SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON
   PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.  STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS ALONG SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE WLYS...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
   
   ...NY/NCNTRL PA AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...
   MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY SURFACE LOW AS
   STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY DURING PEAK HEATING. 
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS ONTARIO AND THEN EWD
   ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
   THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
    
   
   ...NERN CO...
   NELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING.
    BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT IF A
   STORM DEVELOPS AND SURVIVES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL AUGMENT HAIL/WIND PRODUCTION.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   WDLY SCT TSTMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY SRN APPALACHIANS
   AND ALONG LEFT-OVER BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON. 
   WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT PULSE IN NATURE WITH RISKS OF
   DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z