SPC AC 280736
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW
   BVO 30 WNW PNC 40 SW P28 50 SSW RSL 15 SE HSI OFK 20 SSW FSD OTG 20
   NW FOD 45 WSW DSM 10 NW FLV 30 S TOP 55 NNW BVO.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
   RRT 30 E STC 55 NW DBQ 40 NE IRK 35 NE JLN 30 S TUL 20 W ADM 55 NE
   ABI 70 S CDS 40 S GAG 50 S HLC 15 WNW EAR 60 W YKN 25 WNW ABR 70 N
   DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ANJ 15 SSE MBL
   30 WSW GRR 35 WSW SBN BMG 25 WNW JKL 10 NNW GSO 50 SW HSE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SAV 30 NE CSG
   20 E CBM 30 SE PBF 30 SE TXK 45 S TYR 10 SW AUS 45 NW HDO 45 NW DRT
   30 ESE FST 10 E LBB 30 S LBL LAA 45 ENE ALS 30 NW DRO 45 N BCE 50
   WNW OGD 45 NW PIH 25 NNE CTB.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO CENTRAL AND
   ERN KS AND NWRN MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. OUTSIDE OF
   MDT RISK AREA...
   
   ...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING CENTRAL U.S...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES ON DY2 WITH ASSOCIATED COLD UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ERN MT BY
   12Z SUN. ETA/GFS BASIC AGREEMENT ON SURFACE FEATURES WITH A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW CENTER SRN SASKATCHEWAN SEWD INTO A SECOND
   LOW OVER CENTRAL SD THEN SWWD INTO SRN UT SAT MORNING. BY LATE
   AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN DAKOTAS WITH THE SD LOW
   MOVING NEWD TO VICINITY MN/ND/SD BORDER WHILE A LOW DEEPENS OVER WRN
   KS AT THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE.  THE DRY LINE
   WILL EXTEND SWD VICINITY OK/TX BORDER TO BIG BEND.
   
   IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT/DRY LINE 40-50 KT OF 850MB SLY FLOW WILL
   EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. A VERY MOIST GULF
   AIR MASS WILL SPREAD NWD BY LATE AFTERNOON TO THE CANADIAN BORDER
   WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S COMMON AND NEAR 70F ERN NEB/WRN IA
   SWD. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM THE RESULT
   WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF FRONT/DRY LINE NWD TO CANADIAN
   BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CENTRAL U.S...
   STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS NRN PLAINS
   INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEAD S/WV TROUGH
   ROTATES NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.  ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
   CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DOES NOT ENTER CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
   FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS INDICATE PRONOUNCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
   DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWD TO ERN NEB/WRN
   IA AHEAD OF FIRST S/WV TROUGH.
   
   A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
   MUCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG COMMON E OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. AS CAP
   WEAKENS UNDER THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AND THE STRONG
   HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS.  THE AREA
   OF GREATEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
   VEERING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD EXIST FROM  ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD ALONG
   DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS REGION  WOULD SEEM AS AN AREA FOR THE
   GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   TORNADOES.
   
   FURTHER N AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SD AND S/WV
   TROUGH...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE HELICITY AND POSSIBLE
   TORNADO POTENTIAL ERN ND/SD INTO WRN MN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS FURTHER S.
   
   FROM CENTRAL KS SWD THE CAP STRENGTH WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER THE
   EXPECTED EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR SUPPORTS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
   FORM.
   
   ..HALES.. 05/28/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z