SPC AC 271733
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
   LHX 25 SSE TAD 45 WNW TAD 10 W DEN 25 NNW FCL 30 E CYS 10 SW SNY 40
   E AKO 50 NE LAA 20 S LAA 50 SSE LHX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG 50 WNW SAD 25 SE
   INW 30 SSE U17 50 NE BCE 50 E ELY 60 WSW ELY 20 WSW TPH 60 NE MER 30
   N SAC 40 SW RBL 45 SE EKA CEC 35 ESE OTH 40 SE EPH 25 NNW 63S
   ...CONT... 55 NE CTB 65 NNE BIL 25 SW MLS 45 NW REJ 45 NNW PHP 40
   NNE VTN 25 NNE BUB EAR 25 NW RSL 35 WNW P28 40 N END BVO 15 WNW UMN
   25 NE ALN 20 NNW AZO 35 NE MBS ...CONT... 25 NW SYR 45 SSE UCA 15 E
   MSV 15 E NEL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 40 SW IMT
   35 E EAU 20 ESE STC 45 SE FAR 40 ESE DVL 65 NNW DVL.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   AREA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   NRN STREAM MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
   VLY IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH VLY AND NEW ENGLAND
   MONDAY.  LOWER AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL
   SUBSEQUENTLY EJECT/SHEAR NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY MONDAY
   EVENING.  AT THE SURFACE...QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SITUATED FROM THE
   CAROLINAS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW FRONT
   DROPPING SEWD IN WAKE OF THE UPPER MS VLY DISTURBANCE. THESE FRONTS
   WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK
   WEEK.
   
   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL TURN MORE SELY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
   CENTER OF PLAINS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD KANSAS CITY.  AS A
   RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S
   ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BENEATH STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES BY
   MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATER. 
   MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL
   LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLD TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...MAIN SEVERE MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR
   AND A SMALL MCS MAY FORM IN THE EVENING ACROSS ERN CO WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVER
   TODAY...THE SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN UPGRADE TO
    CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ...CAROLINAS NWD TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...
   MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KTS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEARING SRN PLAINS
   TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD TO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
   TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VCNTY WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT DURING PEAK
   HEATING AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BY EVENING.  TSTMS MAY TEND TO
   DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND BOW GIVING ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   FARTHER N...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OVER CNTRL PA SWD INTO WRN VA BY
   AFTERNOON.  INCREASING WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM
   IMPULSE MAY ENCOURAGE LINE SEGMENTS TO BOW WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS
   POSSIBLE.  MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WILL BE WEAK
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY.
   
   ...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
   COMBINATION OF RECYCLED MOISTURE FROM THE DIURNAL TSTM CYCLE AND
   BRIEF ENHANCEMENTS TO THE ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REGIME WILL
   MAINTAIN THE TSTM THREAT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES MONDAY.  IN
   FACT...MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS MAY INCREASE WELL WEST OF THE
   DIVIDE AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS PERSIST OVER THE DESERTS.  GIVEN
   ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH...INCREASING UPPER
   DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND W TX.  GIVEN HIGH CLOUD
   BASES/INVERTED-V PROFILES...ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL.
   
   ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
   DIURNAL MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MONDAY.  LARGE DEW
   POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ENCOURAGE ISOLD SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.  OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
   LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/27/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z