SPC AC 281724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
RTN 20 S ALS 35 SSW 4FC 40 NNW LAR 45 ESE DGW 15 SSW CDR 45 NNW IML
40 NNW EHA 30 E RTN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 10 SSW DRO
U17 ELY 30 ENE BYI 25 NW 27U 35 WNW LWT 30 NNW PHP ATY EAU 20 SE CMX
...CONT... 10 N ANJ 35 SSE CGX 35 SW TBN 30 N LIT 10 E GLH 35 E TUP
35 E LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSM 35 NE EFK.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ON THURSDAY. WELL
DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH...AND
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN BC/AB BORDER PER WV IMAGERY...IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AND LESS IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD AND AID IN ENHANCING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO AND CENTRAL/SERN WY...IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F OVER SERN WY/ERN CO. STEEP
LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ABOVE THE AXIS OF WARM/MOIST AIR WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE INSTABILITY.
INCREASING WNWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS...ATOP THE ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE.
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE ESEWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST THREATS...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO
OCCUR...GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROGGED BY
THE 28/12Z ETA.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
WRN AND NRN NEB AS INCREASING SLY LLJ RESULTS IN WAA REGIME ALONG
AND NORTH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO NEB. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR
LIMITING THE EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE STORMS.
..PETERS.. 07/28/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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