Jul-28-2004 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 28 17:28:36 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040728 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20040728 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 281724
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT WED JUL 28 2004
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
   RTN 20 S ALS 35 SSW 4FC 40 NNW LAR 45 ESE DGW 15 SSW CDR 45 NNW IML
   40 NNW EHA 30 E RTN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 10 SSW DRO
   U17 ELY 30 ENE BYI 25 NW 27U 35 WNW LWT 30 NNW PHP ATY EAU 20 SE CMX
   ...CONT... 10 N ANJ 35 SSE CGX 35 SW TBN 30 N LIT 10 E GLH 35 E TUP
   35 E LUK PSB 10 SSW JFK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PSM 35 NE EFK.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ON THURSDAY. WELL
   DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH...AND
   CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SRN BC/AB BORDER PER WV IMAGERY...IS
   PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON.  A SECOND AND LESS IDENTIFIABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
   THE PAC NW WILL ALSO MOVE SEWD AND AID IN ENHANCING LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT.  ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN CO AND CENTRAL/SERN WY...IN
   THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SSEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
   IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F OVER SERN WY/ERN CO.  STEEP
   LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ABOVE THE AXIS OF WARM/MOIST AIR WILL
   RESULT IN A MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   
   INCREASING WNWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
   TROUGHS...ATOP THE ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGE. 
   ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE ESEWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE GREATEST THREATS...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO
   OCCUR...GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROGGED BY
   THE 28/12Z ETA.
   
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
   WRN AND NRN NEB AS INCREASING SLY LLJ RESULTS IN WAA REGIME ALONG
   AND NORTH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING SWD INTO NEB.  THESE STORMS
   WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR
   LIMITING THE EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/28/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z