SPC AC 021727
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
   ISN 35 W BIS FSD 20 N DBQ AZO 15 NNW PIT 20 SE CRW 5I3 BWG 20 SW MDH
   25 S SLN 45 ENE GLD BFF BIL HLN 20 N CTB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 4BL RKS
   PIH 40 N SUN 45 SE BKE BNO 35 ESE MHS 45 W MHS 35 NW MFR PDX 15 NE
   BLI ...CONT... 60 NNE MOT 15 ENE JMS AXN CWA 20 NNE MTW 35 NNE MBS
   ...CONT... 10 NW LRD 25 SSE CLL 15 SSE POE MCB MGM LGC 25 WNW AHN 50
   SSE TYS BNA POF JLN P28 35 N GAG AMA 65 SE ELP.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
   VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ACTIVE...BUT COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. MID
   LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM HUDSON BAY SWD INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...WHILE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
   NWD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD IN
   RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW
   ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN NWWD
   INTO MT BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER W ...AN UPPER LOW
   CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN CA...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...BUT BE
   EJECTED NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS EWD INTO MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEYS...
   MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE MCS/S ON TUESDAY..THOUGH
   LOCATION/TIMING/SPEED ARE OFTEN NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. PAST
   COUPLE OF ETA/GFS RUNS...INCLUDING GFS NRN BIAS...HAVE BEEN
   CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION TONIGHT BEING
   LOCATED IN IA/IL AT THE START OF PERIOD. THESE STORMS MIGHT BE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE MORNING...BUT WITH HEATING... MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS...A BOW ECHO IS
   POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ANOTHER CLUSTER IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
   IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN
   INITIATION NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WEAK FORCING AND CAPPING
   INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTION SOUTH OF FRONT. STRONG DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR AND MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO VEER
   FROM NEB INTO SRN IA/NRN MO AND SHOULD FAVOR STORMS EVOLVING INTO A
   SLIGHT ELEVATED BOW ECHO WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT SPREADING ESEWD
   INTO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...MT AREA...
   ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL MOISTEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE
   UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY ACROSS ERN MT...RESULTING IN
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. DESPITE HEIGHT
   RISES...STATIONARY NW-SE FRONT...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
   APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
   TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN MT
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTING ISOLATED
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW MAY BE
   FAVORABLE TO ORGANIZE STORMS INTO LINES/BANDS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
   FOR WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG
   OF MLCAPES...NCEP ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE MOSTLY AOB
   1000 J/KG...SO ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF WIND DAMAGE ATTM.
   
   ..IMY.. 08/02/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z