SPC AC 090706
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
   TCC 25 W TAD 40 WNW FCL 15 SE CYS 30 SSW GLD 10 NNE SGF 20 E FSM 20
   S CDS 30 SSW TCC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
   ART UCA 15 NNE ABE 25 W HGR 25 SE PIT 35 NNE BUF.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 40 N 3DU 45
   ENE S80 40 WNW ALW 50 SW RDM 20 NE EUG 40 SSE OLM 35 ENE BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DRT 30 SSE JCT
   45 NNE CLL 35 NNW GGG 20 SSW ADM 50 NNW BGS 40 WSW INK 50 SW MRF
   ...CONT... SAN 20 ESE EED 30 W GNT 25 SE GUC 45 SSW RWL 10 NE JAC
   LVM 20 W 4BQ 20 N AIA 30 ENE MCK FLV 15 NW SLO LUK 20 W YNG 70 N ERI
   ...CONT... 35 ESE ECG 20 W RWI 20 ESE CLT 40 ENE MCN 45 NE MGR 10 NE
   JAX.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
   PLNS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN GRT
   LKS/NRN APLCNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AS
   IMPULSE NOW OVER AB DEEPENS AND CONTINUES SE FROM ND INTO MN AND WI.
    AT THE SAME TIME...LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER MN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
   IT LIFTS NE INTO ERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC.  AMPLIFYING AB SYSTEM WILL
   USHER A NEW SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE N CNTRL U.S...AND REINFORCE
   EXISTING COLD FRONT LIKELY TO EXTEND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM
   LWR MI ACROSS THE MID MS VLY TO THE CNTRL HI PLNS.  THE FRONT SHOULD
   ACCELERATE S/SE LATER TUESDAY...AND REACH A W TX/WRN KY/NW PA LINE
   BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
   WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN STATES RIDGE WILL
   STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS ON TUESDAY
   AS AB UPPER IMPULSE MOVES SE ACROSS ND/MN.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS CO/KS...AND BOOST
   DEEP NWLY SHEAR TO AOA 40 KTS. COMBINATION OF SURFACE
   HEATING...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE
   ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DAY ONE CONVECTION
   SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER SE CO/
   WRN AND SRN KS/NRN AND WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.  POTENTIAL WILL
   ALSO EXIST FOR ELEVATED POST FRONTAL STORMS NWD/WWD INTO PARTS OF
   NEB AND NE CO AS SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS SURGES SWD BENEATH PERSISTENT
   WNW FLOW ALOFT.
   
   GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS...A THREAT WILL
   EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND FROM SURFACE-BASED
   STORMS ALONG AND S OF FRONT.  HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY POST FRONTAL
   CELLS IN NE CO AND KS. SOME OF THE SRN KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE ACTIVITY
   MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO LARGE CLUSTERS THAT MOVE MAINLY S/SE
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...ERN GRT LKS/NRN APLCNS...
   BAND OF MODERATE /30 TO 40 KT/ WLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER
   IMPULSE NOW IN MN WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPR OH VLY/NRN APLCNS ON
   TUESDAY.  WITH MAIN UPPER VORT EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD INTO
   ONTARIO/QUEBEC...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK OVER
   THE NERN U.S.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE WEAK /AROUND 6.5
   DEG C PER KM/. BUT SURFACE HEATING AND LINGERING CONVERGENCE ALONG
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS GIVEN 25-30 KT DEEP
   WSWLY SHEAR AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 08/09/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z