Aug-29-2004 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 29 07:24:38 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040829 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20040829 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 290717
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0217 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 40 NW SAD
   40 SSW GNT 50 NE 4SL 35 ENE ASE 55 N CYS 50 NNW CPR 40 ESE WEY 55
   WNW BOI 80 ENE RDM 20 NW PUW 20 NNE EAT 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 20 NE
   INL 40 WSW DLH 15 ENE MKT 35 W FOD 35 ESE GRI 15 ESE RSL 20 S END 20
   SSW SPS 50 E SJT 40 N DRT 30 WSW COT 35 ENE CRP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 40 ENE FMY 35 WNW
   ORL 25 S CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE ANJ 25 SW APN
   35 NE MKG 20 WSW MTW 40 SSW IMT 35 SW CMX 90 ENE ELO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MOB 40 SW TOI
   45 N ABY 35 WNW AHN 45 NNE CSV 45 ESE LUK 20 SSW CAK 20 N JHW.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS ON MONDAY IN
   WAKE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  THE
   LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM WRN ONTARIO/NE MN INTO
   SRN QUEBEC DURING THE PERIOD.  FARTHER E...EXPECT RIDGE TO PERSIST
   OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AS T.S. GASTON SLOWLY INCREASES FORWARD SPEED
   AND MOVES NE ACROSS THE LWR CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION /SEE TPC FCSTS FOR
   DETAILS/.
   
   TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE NOW OVER
   SASKATCHEWAN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
   PLNS/UPR MS VLY DURING THE PERIOD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THAT
   FEATURE...SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN WEAK.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL HI PLNS...
   STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS OF CO/NM AND THE ADJACENT HI PLNS ON MONDAY AS SURFACE
   HEATING DESTABILIZES AXIS OF RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING FRONT NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. COMBINATION
   OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL FAVOR
   SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PULSE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY
   BRIEFLY POSE A THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS/SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ...NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY...
   AMPLIFICATION OF WRN RIDGE AND DIURNAL PROCESSES EXPECTED TO RESULT
   IN STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION OVER THE ERN DAKS
   AND MN MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS
   AXIS OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER REGION.  SPARSE MOISTURE
   SHOULD LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED CAPE...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
   SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ...NRN WI/NRN MI...
   WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN EXPECTED TO LIFT ENE
   ACROSS SRN ONTARIO THIS PERIOD...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS SHOULD
   REMAIN MINIMAL OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WI/MI ON MONDAY.  NEVERTHELESS
   ...DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH LINGERING PATTERN OF SEASONABLY COOL AND
   CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS WITH SMALL HAIL.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 08/29/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1730Z