SPC AC 091723
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2004
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
   ELO 20 W STC 35 E HON 50 NE PIR 35 S BIS 50 N MOT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW MFE 40 S CRP
   ...CONT... 40 SE LCH 25 NNW BTR 45 N MOB 15 WNW ABY 45 N AYS 45 WNW
   CHS 20 ENE ECG ...CONT... ISP 25 SW EEN 40 NW CAR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NE MQT 20 ENE RHI
   30 SE MCW 25 W OLU 35 W HLC 35 S IML 40 N PHP 55 N MLS 90 NW GGW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW GJT 10 SSE COS
   10 N TAD 25 N 4SL 30 SSE GCN 10 NNE BLH 40 S DAG 35 N NID 55 N P38
   45 NW GJT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO
   TRANSLATE EWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
   NIGHT. THE FRONT OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE SWD TONIGHT
   IN WAKE OF A LEAD IMPULSE...REACHING NW MN-SE ND-CNTRL SD-NE WY BY
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  AS THE MAIN WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT...A
   SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SD AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO
   THE UPPER LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY.  A WEAK LEE-TROUGH WILL BE
   PRESENT FROM SCNTRL SD-NWRN KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD
   FRONT SURGES SWD FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SCANT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
   THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY ON FRIDAY OWING TO DRY SURFACE OUTFLOW
   FROM DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.  BOUNDARY LAYER MAY MOISTEN GRADUALLY
   BENEATH A STOUT CAP WHERE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   FRONT AND GREENERY EXISTS.  BUT...EVEN WITH THESE PROCESSES...H85/H7
   TEMPERATURES AOA 20C/10C RESPECTIVELY SHOULD  LIMIT PROBABILITIES OF
   SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.
   
   THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
   STRONGER DIFF CVA ARRIVES ACROSS THE DAKS AFTER 00Z AND NWRN MN
   OVERNIGHT.  MUCAPES WILL GENERALLY BE 500-1000 J/KG...BUT STRENGTH
   OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND PRESENCE OF 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
   SHEAR MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFTS ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES.
   
   OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT/STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND HEATING FROM THE
   TRIPLE POINT OVER SCNTRL SD/NCNTRL NEB SWD ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH MAY
   BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP LOCALLY. POOR MOISTURE PROFILE WILL
   RESULT IN ISOLD VERY HIGH BASED CONVECTION AT BEST.  WEAKER VERTICAL
   SHEAR AND WARMER PROFILE SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE 
   TSTMS...BUT AN ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUST/HAIL MAY OCCUR.
   
   ..RACY.. 09/09/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z