Oct-27-2004 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 27 17:36:33 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041027 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20041027 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 271731
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E ANJ 30 NNW MTC
   20 NE CMH 15 ESE CRW 40 NE HKY CAE 25 NE SSI 30 SSE JAX 50 SSE CTY
   ...CONT... 30 ESE GPT 10 SW LUL 30 SSW GWO 40 E LIT 60 N HOT 25 WSW
   PGO 35 NNW TYR 50 NE CLL 15 WSW GLS ...CONT... 50 S CRP 10 NW SAT 35
   SE JCT 40 SW JCT DRT.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PUB RTN 20 SSE
   LVS TCC 30 SSW EHA 55 NE GCK 20 NW GRI 60 NW OFK 45 NE ANW 30 W VTN
   10 NNW AIA 30 ESE CYS 30 SSE DEN 15 SW PUB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 50 W GCN 15
   ESE ELY 15 SW WMC 85 NNW WMC 55 E BNO 40 W 27U 20 WSW BZN 35 WNW SHR
   25 WSW 4BQ 50 NE 4BQ 55 N ISN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   
   EXIT REGION OF UPPER SPEED MAX WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES
   INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY2 PERIOD.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AID SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS REGION JUST SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS.  LOW CENTER WILL
   THEN MOVE NEWD ALONG TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TOWARD SERN SD AFTER
   MIDNIGHT.
   
   IN ADVANCE OF UPPER SPEED MAX...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
   ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID ELEVATED CONVECTION
   ACROSS MUCH OF MN INTO WRN WI. A FEW STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION MAY
   GENERATE SOME HAIL...OR PERHAPS STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   
   HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE WILL ENHANCE LEE
   TROUGHING ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
   TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING FROM ERN NM INTO
   SWRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  ONE
   ARGUMENT AGAINST A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE LACK OF
   SIGNIFICANT FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH.  IT APPEARS
   ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY
   SHORT-LIVED...ALTHOUGH A FEW MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 10/27/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z