SPC AC 051723
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CST FRI NOV 05 2004
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S VBG 45 NNE NID
   60 E LAS 25 NW PRC 70 SW GBN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EYW PBI.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...WEST OF ROCKIES...
   MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER
   RIDGE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY...DOWNSTREAM OF PROGRESSIVE
   NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AS THIS OCCURS...CLOSED LOW
   WILL REMAIN CUT-OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. 
   MODELS DO SUGGEST A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND
   SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS
   NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY
   SATURDAY NIGHT.
   
   ASSOCIATED EVOLUTION OF 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   JET INTO THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT BENEATH EXIT REGION OF UPPER
   JET STREAK.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES STEEPEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
   APPEAR POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE NEEDLES AREA...
   WESTWARD THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT.
   
   OTHER THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW...
   BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
   COASTAL AREAS.
   
   ...EAST OF ROCKIES...
   IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
   GULF OF MEXICO LATE TODAY...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE AMPLIFICATION
   OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. 
   MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA/CARIBBEAN/AND BAHAMAS REGION SATURDAY...LIKELY SUPPORTING
   SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY
   SOUTH/EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...WEAK CAPPING AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE VICINITY OF
   COASTAL AREAS AROUND MIAMI.
   
   ..KERR.. 11/05/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z