Nov- 7-2004 0800 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 7 05:52:41 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041107 0800 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20041107 0800 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 070547
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1147 PM CST SAT NOV 06 2004
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DUG FHU TUS PHX 70
   NNW GBN BLH 40 NNE TRM DAG 70 SE BIH TPH ENV OGD EVW 40 S RKS 40 W
   EGE GUC SAF ONM TCS DMN DUG.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE CENTRAL/SRN CA -- IS EXPECTED TO TURN NEWD
   AND MOVE INLAND LATE DAY-1 OR EARLY DAY-2 PERIOD...THEN MOVE ACROSS
   GREAT BASIN THROUGH DAY-2.  BROAD PLUME OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST
   ADVECTION SHOULD PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS REGION...HELPING TO
   DESTABILIZE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED TSTMS IN WARM CONVEYOR.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND COOLING
   WILL SPREAD OVER WRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA IN PROXIMITY TO MID/UPPER
   LEVEL LOW...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK SFC DIABATIC HEATING DURING
   AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD FURTHER STEEPEN DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND
   SUPPORT TSTMS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE
   STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR ANY SORT OF OUTLOOK BEYOND GEN TSTMS ATTM.
   
   FARTHER E...EXPECT CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
   RIDGING AND CONTINENTAL/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
   PLAINS...REINFORCED BY DAY-1 FROPA.  THIS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
   MOISTURE RETURN E OF ROCKIES THROUGH PERIOD...AND PRECLUDE SEVERE
   TSTMS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/07/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z