SPC AC 151729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 AM CST MON NOV 15 2004
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP ALM EHA GCK
   RSL SLN EMP CNU FSM TXK 40 SSE BPT.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH DAY-2 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED PRIMARILY BY
   MEAN RIDGE OVER MS VALLEY AND SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM CYCLONE...NOW
   EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NWRN MEX AND GULF OF CA. 
   MEX LOW SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EWD TOWARD TX BIG BEND REGION BY END
   OF PERIOD.  SFC WARM/MARINE FRONT NOW ANALYZED OVER LOWER TX COASTAL
   WATERS AND NERN GULF.  AMIDST LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED
   WITH APCHG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE INLAND OVER
   DEEP S TX...PORTIONS MID TX COAST...AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS FAR AS
   SAT AREA.
   
   ...S TX...
   CUMULATIVELY...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS S TX
   THROUGH PERIOD.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   STRONG-SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY INVOF SFC FRONT WHERE
   BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE BACKED AND HODOGRAPHS LARGEST.  ALTHOUGH
   FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC...EXPECT SOME
   DESTABILIZATION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH LOW LEVEL WAA AND WITH
   ARC OF MIDLEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF MEX LOW.  ALSO...POCKETS OF
   RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SFC HEATING -- IN CLOUD BREAKS NEAR/S OF FRONT
   -- SHOULD CONTRIBUTE FURTHER TO BUOYANCY.  MLCAPES MAY REACH
   1000-1500 J/KG RANGE IN SOME AREAS...THOUGH LARGE PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL/S TX SHOULD BE STABILIZED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP FOR MUCH OF
   PERIOD.  STRONG DEPENDENCE ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES PRECLUDES
   CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.  GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED STORMS
   TO PRODUCE SEVERE MAY BE INVOF MARINE FRONT AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD DECK EDGES...MOST PROBABLY
   WITHIN THE 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 11/15/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z