SPC AC 021000
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST FRI JAN 02 2004
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
STRONG...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ETA/GFS DIFFER IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF LOW...WITH GFS FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH. IN EITHER
CASE...RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL EXIST IN WARM
SECTOR OF LOW OVER PARTS OF KY/IND/OH. DESPITE AN APPARENT LACK OF
INSTABILITY /FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG/...APPROACH OF 100+
KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW. WILL INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG
THIS AXIS...AND WILL MONITOR IN LATER UPDATES FOR MORE INSTABILITY
AND POSSIBLE UPGRADE.
..HART.. 01/02/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
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