SPC AC 231101
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA....
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP SRN STREAM TROUGH...NOW OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA...WILL PROGRESS
   EWD OVER THE GULF COAST TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST AS ANOTHER DEEP MID
   LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC COAST.  A SURFACE LOW
   WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
   TO OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
   
   ...FL AREA...
   EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
   F ACROSS FL FROM DAY 2 INTO DAY 3...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY.  ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER WIND
   FIELDS AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING THE SPECIFIC MODE /CLUSTERS VERSUS LINE/ AND TIMING OF THE
   CONVECTION ACROSS FL.  THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR SEVERAL
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS N FL FROM DAY 2 INTO EARLY DAY 3...WHILE A
   TRAILING BAND OF STORMS /SOME SEVERE/ MOVES EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA
   DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  
   
   ...CA AREA...
   STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE DEEP ERN PACIFIC TROUGH AS IT
   MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NRN CA...AND COLD MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES /NEAR -30 C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK
   INSTABILITY.  STRONG GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION EMBEDDED
   IN THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THREAT OF
   STRONG POST-FRONTAL STORMS AS THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREAD INLAND.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z