SPC AC 261023
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0423 AM CST THU FEB 26 2004
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR W TX....
   
   ...W TX AREA...
   A DEEP MID-UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC COAST
   WILL CONTINUE SEWD TO THE SRN ROCKIES AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
   MORNING...PER LATEST ETA/GEM/ECMWF FORECASTS AND MODEL FORECAST
   TRENDS OF SLOWING THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID
   LEVEL TROUGH...LEE CYCLOGENESIS FROM ERN CO TO W TX/ERN NM WILL
   INDUCE S AND SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WRN
   GULF REGION.  THE RETURNING AIR MASS WILL STILL BE UNDERGOING
   MODIFICATION IN THE WAKE OF THE PRESENT FRONTAL INTRUSION...AND
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
   LOWER 50S ACROSS W TX BY LATE SATURDAY.  DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
   
   THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CAPE APPEAR TO BE THE
   MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
   VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  STILL...THE
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS DURING THE
   EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.  WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MORE STABLE LOW
   LEVELS SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT PROGRESS TOO FAR TO
   THE E/NE OVERNIGHT...WHERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A N-S
   ORIENTED LINE FROM NW TX INTO WRN OK.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 02/26/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z