SPC AC 220956
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CST MON MAR 22 2004
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY ZONAL ACROSS THE LWR 48 ON WEDNESDAY.
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE E PACIFIC INVOF 30N/140W EXPECTED TO
   REACH THE CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THIS
   FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LATER WEDNESDAY...
   AND REACH MO/AR BY 12Z THURSDAY.
   
   AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH RCKYS/HI PLNS
   IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE E ACROSS NRN KS DURING THE PERIOD AS TRAILING
   COLD FRONT NOSES S ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT... A
   DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT MARKING ERN
   BORDER OF DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT EDGING E FROM THE
   RCKYS.
   
   ...ERN KS/WRN MO SEWD INTO OK/N TX...
   MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW...SURFACE HEATING AND PRESENCE
   OF EXISTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /ML CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG/ BY
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM ERN KS SSW INTO
   NW TX.
   
   CAP ASSOCIATED WITH MIXED LAYER PLUME WILL LIKELY LIMIT
   COVERAGE...BUT SUSTAINED ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION ALONG TROUGH AND
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
   SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A FEW
   STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  PROXIMITY OF SRN STREAM JET
   /WITH WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KT/ AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL
   COMPONENT TO DEEP SHEAR WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   SUSTAINED ACTIVITY/SUPERCELLS...IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM.  THE MAIN
   SEVERE THREAT POSED WILL BE LARGE HAIL. EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO
   SMALL MCSS SEEMS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STORM OUTFLOWS
   ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 03/22/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z