Jun-17-2004 1200 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 17 09:00:27 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040617 1200 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20040617 1200 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 170856
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2004
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
   STATES...
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY...TN/OH VALLEYS...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A STRONGER BROAD TROUGH OVER
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY.  THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
   ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
   STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND MID
   ATLANTIC STATES.  SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   THESE AREAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LIKELY PROVIDING A FOCUS
   FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS
   AXIS OF STRONG STORMS COULD BE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO NY/PA AND NEW
   ENGLAND...SO WILL INCLUDE LOW PROBABILITIES IN THAT REGION AS WELL.
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS...
   YET ANOTHER DAY OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR
   OVER NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO.  SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX...REINFORCED BY DIURNAL
   CONVECTION ON DAY1 AND DAY2.  STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OFF THE HIGH
   PLAINS INTO WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX BEFORE WEAKENING.
   
   ..HART.. 06/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z