SPC AC 060956
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0456 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
   AND NRN PLAINS...
   
   ...HIGH PLAINS/NRN PLAINS...
   A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   OVER THE NWRN US...IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON
   DAY 3. IN TURN...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY. EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MT AND NRN ND WHERE
   STRONG FORCING SHOULD EXIST SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-TROUGH.
   
   AS THE UPPER-TROUGH ORGANIZES IN THE NWRN STATES...A STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP IN THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
   TRANSPORT UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS ERN SD
   BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG
   INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS ERN NEB AND ERN SD SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT 
   DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE NRN GREAT PLAINS AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
   FRONT SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR INITIATION AND SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM ERN MT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS
   BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KT IS FORECAST BY THE ETA AND GFS
   TO EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...CREATING STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AND THIS COMBINED WITH
   THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL.
   A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST CONSIDERING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
   IS FORECAST TO PUNCH NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND/NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
   AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS ON DAY 3. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
   OF THE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT
   MOVING EWD THROUGH THE REGION. DEEP SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND MOSTLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SEVERE
   MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
   INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPGRADE TO
   SLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS
   INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FOCUSED SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/06/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z