Sep-13-2004 1100 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 13 07:44:25 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20040913 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20040913 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 130737
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2004
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
   COAST...
   
   ...GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID MS VALLEY...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED
   STATES AND DE-AMPLIFY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM WI INTO KS BY AFTERNOON.  WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ONLY
   MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
   FRONT. MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED. 
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS REGION SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY LESSENS CONFIDENCE THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL
   OCCUR. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY OUTLOOK LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST....
   HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE GULF
   COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  LARGE RADIUS OF STRONG WINDS AROUND
   SYSTEM AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY LEAD TO FORECAST OF A RISK OF ISOLATED
   TORNADOES FROM SOUTHEAST LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
   
   ..HART.. 09/13/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1100Z