SPC AC 170856
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EXPECTED OVER NOAM ON SUNDAY AS
   DEEP...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH MOVES E INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ELONGATES NEWD FROM E TX TO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.
   OVER THE SOUTHEAST...REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HRCN
   IVAN EXPECTED TO RETROGRESS W/SW FROM NC TO NRN AL AS RIDGE BUILDS
   TO ITS NORTH.
   
   AT LOWER LEVELS...WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
   STRONG...SLOWLY MOVING FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SWRN DESERTS
   TO THE NRN PLNS.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN GRT BASIN TO NRN PLNS...
   SLOWLY-MOVING ANA-TYPE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS DIURNALLY
   ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN STATES THIS PERIOD...
   WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
   SPREADING NEWD FROM HRCN JAVIER.  DRY NATURE OF BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
   THE NRN GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS INTO THE NRN PLNS AND POSITIVE TILT OF
   UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE POST-
   FRONTAL...AND THAT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
   
   ...SRN/ERN AZ TO FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FROM THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION SSW TO THE MEXICAN BORDER ON SUNDAY...WHERE PWS
   MAY RISE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES.  THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD MORE
   ROBUST STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SUSTAINED/
   ORGANIZED GIVEN PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE
   OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
   NECESSARY SURFACE HEATING...AND ABSENCE OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
   STORM DEVELOPMENT...SUGGEST THAT AN OUTLOOK OF SEVERE IS UNWARRANTED
   ATTM.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 09/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1100Z