SPC AC 170803
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CST WED NOV 17 2004
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND BEGIN MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGH. IN
THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL SHORT WAVES...A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE TX GULF COAST.
THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTENSIFY WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROCKIES TROUGH SPREAD SEWD.
ADDITIONALLY...LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
...SOUTHEAST TX...
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
WITH AT LEAST ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST
WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE NWD ATOP RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT ACROSS THIS
REGION IS FCST TO INCREASE AS LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
AND BACKS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. QUESTIONS PERTAINING TO
MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND INLAND PENETRATION OF
GULF AIRMASS PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY FROM ERN CO INTO THE TX PNHDL LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO SPREAD OUT
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING
MAY SPUR TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CO INTO KS/OK BY EARLY SATURDAY...
UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND STORM COVERAGE SUGGEST THAT
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW OVER THESE AREAS.
..CARBIN.. 11/17/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
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