SPC AC 170803
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 AM CST WED NOV 17 2004
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS FCST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES AND BEGIN MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
   SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
   PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AMPLIFYING WRN TROUGH. IN
   THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL SHORT WAVES...A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE
   WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE TX GULF COAST.
   THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL INTENSIFY WITH TIME AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
   FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROCKIES TROUGH SPREAD SEWD.
   ADDITIONALLY...LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND A STRONG COLD
   FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
   SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN
   THE PERIOD. 
   
   ...SOUTHEAST TX...
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
   WITH AT LEAST ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST
   WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
   TO INCREASE NWD ATOP RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT ACROSS THIS
   REGION IS FCST TO INCREASE AS LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
   AND BACKS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. QUESTIONS PERTAINING TO
   MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND INLAND PENETRATION OF
   GULF AIRMASS PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE WEATHER
   PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY FROM ERN CO INTO THE TX PNHDL LATE
   IN THE PERIOD AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING BEGINS TO SPREAD OUT
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING
   MAY SPUR TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM CO INTO KS/OK BY EARLY SATURDAY...
   UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND STORM COVERAGE SUGGEST THAT
   THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW OVER THESE AREAS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 11/17/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z