Dec-23-2004 1100 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 23 08:04:49 UTC 2004
Categorical Graphic
20041223 1100 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Graphic
20041223 1100 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 230759
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 AM CST THU DEC 23 2004
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ERN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY EWD / NEWD ACROSS
   THE ERN CONUS...WHILE UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
   THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD.  SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- INITIALLY EXPECTED
   OVER TX / MEXICO -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF
   MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE LINGERING NEAR OR JUST S
   OF THE FL PENINSULA MAY WOBBLE SLIGHTLY NWD AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   CROSSES THE GULF...SUGGESTING A LIMITED POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION
   OVER S FL -- PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
   
   ...S FL...
   THOUGH COLD FRONT -- AND MORE FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS --
   SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...IT
   APPEARS ATTM THAT BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT NWD INTO S FL LATER IN THE
   PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO GULF VORT MAX.
   
   SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PAN OUT...COMBINATION OF INCREASING FLOW ALOFT
   OVER MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS TO DEVELOP AS FAR N AS S FL LATER IN THE PERIOD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 12/23/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z