Jan- 5-2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 5 00:53:45 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050105 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20050105 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050105 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20050105 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 050049
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005
   
   VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 40 NNW TRM
   20 NW LAS 10 SE CDC 40 NNW GJT 15 WSW EGE 55 ESE GUC 45 NNW CAO 30
   SW LBL 35 SSE DDC 15 W STJ 15 ESE IRK 15 W MTO 45 SW BMG 35 WSW OWB
   30 SSE CGI 20 NNW ARG 35 N HOT 30 SSE FTW 50 N SJT 15 N INK 50 SE
   ELP.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT SERN OK-NCNTRL
   TX-JUST NORTH OF KMAF. 00Z KMAF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT MOIST WARM
   SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS CAPPED WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR
   SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
   
   TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER ACROSS THE TX
   S PLAINS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A SRN NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH SPREADS EWD.  PER 00Z KMAF SOUNDING AND FORECAST RUC
   PROFILES...PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 5KFT EXHIBIT CAPE OF 1000-1300
   J/KG.  GIVEN EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR 70-80 KTS...ISOLD ELEVATED
   SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  
   
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN OK AND
   NWRN TX OVERNIGHT AS ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS COINCIDENT
   WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
   
   ..RACY.. 01/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z