Jan- 5-2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 5 16:33:50 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050105 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probablistic Tornado Graphic
20050105 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050105 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probablistic Large Hail Graphic
20050105 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 051626
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005
   
   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E ELD 15 E GGG 40
   NNW ACT 25 WNW MWL 35 WNW ADM 20 WSW MKO 30 W HRO 30 WSW JBR 45 W
   MEM 25 E ELD.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEY...
   APPEARS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LESSENING THIS MORNING AS AIR MASS
   REMAINS SATURATED WITH ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY EVIDENT. 
   HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
   ABOVE H85 SUGGESTS ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL PERSIST OVER
   PARTS OF ERN OK/NRN TX INTO AR.  THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE EVEN
   MORE ISOLATED...BUT STILL POSSIBLE...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
   CONVECTION FROM ERN KS ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA TODAY...AND EVEN ALONG
   NOSE OF LLJ INTO IL/IND/WRN OH LATER TONIGHT.  IT NOW APPEARS
   LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO
   MARGINAL TO WARRANT SUCH A LARGE GENERAL THUNDER FORECAST.
   
   ..EVANS.. 01/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z