SPC AC 121641
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 AM CST WED JAN 12 2005
   
   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE
   CRP 45 N NIR 25 WSW TPL 15 W FTW 25 ESE LTS 25 N CSM 25 SE EMP 30 E
   COU 10 SE BLV PAH 15 N MKL 30 SSW JAN 40 SSE MSY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 WNW BFD
   30 W CMH 40 NNE SDF 20 E CKV 30 SW TCL 25 WSW PNS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW BRO 20 NNW COT
   30 ENE JCT 45 WNW MWL 20 NW LTS 40 SW P28 35 NNE FNB 40 ENE DSM MTW
   85 ESE ANJ.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPLEX CONVECTIVE FORECAST TODAY AHEAD OF VERY
   STRONG...POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.  SURFACE LOW CENTER NOW DEVELOPING OVER
   S-CENTRAL KS WILL LIKELY DEEPEN AND LIFT ENEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MO
   TODAY...WITH STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW CENTER
   INTO NRN IL.  TRAILING SSWWD FROM THE LOW...DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH
   WILL PUSH EWD INTO WRN OK AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
   THIS WILL ALLOW AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO
   REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER
   VALLEY NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES.  DESPITE THE DEGREE OF
   BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ACROSS WARM SECTOR...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WAS
   EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
   
   ...SERN KS/OK/CENTRAL TX INTO THE LWR MS RIVER VALLEY/TX COAST...
   SEVERE FORECAST WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS TODAY...MOST
   PROMINENT OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG CAPPING AND OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ETA...ETAKF AND RUC
   SUGGEST GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON MAY DEVELOP FROM SWRN
   OK/NRN TX NEWD INTO SERN KS WHERE CLEARING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH.  THOUGH AN ISOLATED
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
   CURRENT ELEVATED PLUME OF STORMS OVER NRN OK/ERN KS...PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT MAY FORM FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER FORECAST AS ACTIVITY
   ORGANIZES INTO SMALL LINES AND SUPERCELLS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
   STRONGEST MIXING/CAA ALOFT AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
   WRN OK/NRN TX.
   
   PRIMARY SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
   FORMING OVER SERN KS/SWRN MO/ERN OK/NERN TX WHERE MODELS ARE
   CONSISTENT IN INCREASING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
   THIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG WRN EDGE OF LLJ AXIS WHERE DEEP
   CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. AS STRONG LINEAR FORCING SHIFTS
   EWD...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ROOT INTO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   WITH INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES FROM NERN
   TX/SWRN AR INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BUILD NEWD ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT
   AS LOW CENTER DEVELOPS INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS. IN
   ADDITION...AS STRONG FORCING OVERCOMES CAP INTO ERN TX...SQUALL LINE
   WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SSWWD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST/SRN LA. 
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE MID
   EVENING...MOST LIKELY FROM SERN OK/NERN TX TOWARDS THE LOWER MS
   RIVER VALLEY...SHOULD STORMS REMAIN SURFACE-BASED AFTER DARK.
   
   ...NERN KS/NRN MO/SRN IA INTO IL AND IND...
   ELEVATED...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAVE
   ALREADY DEVELOPED BY 16Z INTO FAR ERN KS/NWRN MO.  THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND SHIFT ENEWD WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND
   ENHANCED WINTER PRECIPITATION INTO SRN IA/NRN MO THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON... AND INTO IL LATER TODAY.  IN ADDITION...NRN EXTENT OF
   EXPECTED NOCTURNAL SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER
   VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. 
   HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE WILL
   THE OFFSET BY COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER.  THOUGH AN ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP...OVERALL COVERAGE/INTENSITY NOT
   EXPECTED TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK...AND HAVE DOWNGRADED PROBABILITIES
   ACCORDINGLY OVER SOME OF THIS AREA.
   
   ..EVANS.. 01/12/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z