Feb- 4-2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 4 05:32:08 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050204 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050204 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050204 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050204 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 040526
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 PM CST THU FEB 03 2005
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E BLI SEA 10 SE
   AST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 30 NNW PHX
   35 SSW INW 25 NE SOW 75 NE SAD 60 SSW DMN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SERN AZ...
   
   CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NRN BAJA CA IS
   FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY ENEWD AS MID LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED VORT
   MAX ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE ERN QUADRANT OF
   THIS FEATURE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
   SPREAD INTO PARTS OF SRN AZ AND NM. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ACCOMPANYING COLDER AIR ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   THREAT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
   RATHER SPARSE OWING TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
   
   ...NW WA...
   
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
   NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COLD AIR
   ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MOVES INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
   REMAIN LIKELY IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY
   OF THE CASCADES WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED. HOWEVER...
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE
   ISOLATED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/04/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z