SPC AC 221620
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2005
   
   VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 10
   SSE SSI ABY 35 NNW CEW GPT ...CONT... 20 SE BPT SAT 30 NW DRT
   ...CONT... 30 SSW P07 35 NNE MRF HOB LBB SPS PRX ELD BHM ATL 30 NNW
   AGS 40 ENE CHS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 10
   S LAS 25 WNW PRC 65 S GBN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB PIE ...CONT... 65
   WNW MRF 40 WSW GDP 4CR RTN LAA DDC MKO PBF RMG FLO 20 ENE CRE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW UKI 40 N UKI
   RBL TVL 55 NW TPH ELY 30 SE SLC CNY 30 NNW GUP 65 WNW SAD 60 SW TUS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS GULF
   COAST STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN CA/WRN AZ...
   
   ...SC/GA/AL/MS/LA...
   LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS MORNING...WITH
   BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES.  SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED
   OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...ROUGHLY FROM NORTH GA INTO NORTHEAST
   TX.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS GA/AL/MS...AND
   BEGIN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD RETURN OVER LA/TX BY TONIGHT.  AIR MASS
   ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES EXPECTED
   TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
   RATHER WEAK...AND UPPER FORCING WILL BE ILL-DEFINED.  HOWEVER...WEAK
   CAPPING INVERSION AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LA INTO GA/SC.  DESPITE WEAK
   LOW LEVEL WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.  COOL TEMPERATURES
   ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF HAIL
   AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ...TX...
   WESTERN EXTENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL TX.  THIS
   BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
   SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
   CAPPING INVERSION AND DELAYED SURFACE HEATING DUE TO CURRENT LOW
   CLOUDINESS ACROSS TX THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION.
   HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS BY
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
   HAIL THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  HOWEVER...AREA OF MOST
   FOCUSED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TX
   /MAF...SJT...JCT AREAS/ THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
   SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE.  SUPERCELL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS
   REGION....SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX TONIGHT VICINITY AND
   N OF E/W FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ...SOUTHERN CA INTO WESTERN AZ...
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF
   POINT CONCEPTION.  PRONOUNCED PVA/COMMA CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED
   OVERNIGHT WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING EWD TOWARD SRN CA COAST.  LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR HAS INCREASED ALONG SRN CA COAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
   SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW.  AIR MASS REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
   FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY INCREASE COASTAL AREAS AHEAD
   OF PRIMARY BAND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX.  ISOLATED
   WATERSPOUTS/BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NOT ONLY WITH THE
   DISCRETE CELLS MOVING ONSHORE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND BUT ALSO WITH
   THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO COASTAL AREAS DURING
   AFTERNOON. HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK EWD ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AS
   AIR MASS IS MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE DESERT
   REGIONS.  WITH SOME HEATING AND SURFACE TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW
   60S...MUCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  COUPLED WITH
   COOL/STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8C/KM AND FAVORABLE CYCLONIC SHEAR E
   OF UPPER SYSTEM...EXPECT A POTENTIAL OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. 
   PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS
   FROM SRN NV SWD THRU SERN CA/WRN AZ.
   
   ..HALES.. 02/22/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z