Feb-28-2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 28 13:04:07 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050228 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050228 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050228 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050228 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 281301
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005
   
   VALID 281300Z - 011200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE FMY 20 NNE
   PBI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BLI 50 WNW EAT
   15 W YKM 15 NE RDM 45 S EUG 30 N OTH.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
   THIS PERIOD AS STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING SE TOWARD THE MID
   MS VLY DEEPENS EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE EAST.  FAST SRN STREAM JET
   WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN MEXICO/THE NRN GULF AND FL...WHILE SYSTEM
   NOW ENTERING ORE WEAKENS IN LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GRT BASIN.
   
   COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST WILL EDGE
   SLOWLY S ACROSS EXTREME SRN FL TODAY...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FL
   STRAITS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
   
   ...EXTREME S FL...
   A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IN THE SRN STREAM JET...ATTM OVER THE
   CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ASCENT/LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE OVER THE S FL REGION AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA HAVE
   DEVELOPED INVOF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   SPREAD ENE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE IMPULSE
   CONTINUES RAPIDLY EWD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING THROUGH ABOUT
   MIDDAY.
   
   50-60 KT DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS.  IN ADDITION...SURFACE HEATING AND
   RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LIKELY BOOST SBCAPE TO
   AROUND 2000 J/KG.  AS A RESULT...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND. BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND
   COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   LIMITED.
   
   ...WA/ORE...
   A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY REMNANT UPPER LEVEL
   COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SYSTEM CROSSING WRN WA/ORE.
   
   ...NRN MS/NRN AL/NRN GA...
   AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
   MS...AL AND GA LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AS STRONG FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING MID MS VLY TROUGH GLANCES REGION. 
   EXPECTED COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ADDITION OF A
   THUNDER AREA ATTM.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 02/28/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z