Mar- 2-2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 2 16:24:04 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050302 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050302 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050302 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050302 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 021620
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005
   
   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W TPH 25 ENE NFL
   WMC 40 NNE EKO 35 SSE U24 20 SW PGA 35 WSW GCN 10 E LAS 25 W TPH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W COT 25 N SJT 35
   NW MWL 40 SW TXK 15 ESE HEZ 25 N BVE.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN TX...
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS AIDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LAST
   NIGHT/THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL TX WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
   SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH TODAY.  LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION NOW
   MOVING INTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...THOUGH 
   OUTFLOW/SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN STALLED IN AN E-W FASHION FROM THE COASTAL BEND REGION INTO
   THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SRN STREAM REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH TX WITH
   MODEST WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW
   MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO AID DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
   RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND ONLY MODEST GULF
   MOISTURE RETURN.  HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW
   PROBABILITY THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NEW STORMS
   DEVELOP.
   
   ..EVANS/BROYLES.. 03/02/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z