SPC AC 061301
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 AM CST SUN MAR 06 2005
   
   VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAN 20 E RAL
   45 NNE IGM 55 SSE PGA 15 NNW ABQ 45 NE CVS 35 SSW CDS 20 SSW ABI 30
   SE JCT 40 SW PSX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SBN 30 ENE MIE 20 SSE
   BWG 60 NNW MSL 20 WSW MEM 35 N LIT 20 WSW JLN 10 SE FLV 10 ESE DSM
   10 NW RFD SBN.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY REGION TONIGHT...
   A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL DIG
   SEWD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARY WAVE...A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
   NOW OVER SE WY WILL ACCELERATE SEWD AND GRADUALLY PHASE WITH THE
   PRIMARY WAVE BY TONIGHT OVER KS/MO.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ACROSS
   SE SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND
   DEEPEN...WHILE TRAILING LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH OK/MO/IL BY EARLY MONDAY.
   
   THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD/ESEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE
   DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
   INITIALLY AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL
   TONIGHT ACROSS SE IA/MO/IL NEAR AND SE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  A
   GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES OF 250-500
   J/KG OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO/IL.  DESPITE SOME DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER...50 KT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST KM AGL AND THE
   WEAK INSTABILITY MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING
   GUSTS TONIGHT ACROSS MO/IL...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.
   
   ...AZ TO TX...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN NM AND
   SE AZ IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SPEED MAX ROTATING NNEWD AROUND THE
   CLOSED LOW OVER THE S CENTRAL AZ BORDER.  THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TUS
   AND EPZ SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND LIKELY
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   MID-UPPER 50S. COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR E OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND GUSTY WINDS.  FARTHER E ACROSS TX...AN INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
   THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS RIO GRAND VALLEY WILL REMAIN
   RATHER SPARSE.
   
   ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 03/06/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z