SPC AC 080059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST MON MAR 07 2005
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
HUM 15 SSW LFT 10 E POE 35 NNW HEZ 20 SE GWO 35 E TUP 35 NNE HSV 30
NNW CHA 20 S TYS 35 W AVL 25 SW HKY 25 WSW RDU 25 N HSE ...CONT...
20 ESE JAX 20 WSW CTY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DAB 35 WNW FMY
...CONT... 40 NW LRD 35 NNW VCT 50 E CLL 25 NNE PRX 15 W FSM JBR 45
WSW HOP 25 NE LUK 10 N CLE ...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 40 WSW SLK 30 E UCA
40 E BGM 25 SSW BGM 35 NW IPT 30 WNW AOO 15 WSW EKN 40 E SSU 25 ENE
CHO 20 SE DCA 35 NE SBY.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
THE CAROLINAS/GA/NRN FL OVERNIGHT...
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES EWD TO CAROLINAS/GA...
STRONG 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 180-210 METERS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND EWD OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF A STRONG MID-UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY TO GULF COAST STATES.
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS TO 100 KT BY 12Z ARE EXPECTED ON THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW OVER
THE NRN GULF. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
AND EWD TO THE CAROLINAS AS COUPLED MID LEVEL JET STRUCTURE EVOLVES
OVER THIS REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...A COASTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE COAST
SHOULD MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING AS WSWLY LLJ INTENSIFIES TO 50+ KT
FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO VA. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AL/SERN MS AND THE COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO COASTAL PLAINS OF TX WILL PUSH
SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVERNIGHT.
STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS/GA. DESPITE WEAK DESTABILIZATION
FARTHER EAST...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS LIKELY TO THE SE COAST
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF AL INTO GA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND/OR THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
AS UVVS INCREASE WITH THE DEVELOPING COUPLED MID LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE.
FARTHER S...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY FROM JUST OFF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND EWD ACROSS FL PANHANDLE. IF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY CAN MOVE
NWD INTO GA...THEN SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS FAR INLAND AS
WELL. TLH VAD WIND DATA SUGGESTS FAVORABLE LOW TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES.
...UPPER TX COAST...
AIR MASS STABILIZATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A DECREASED SEVERE THREAT FROM THE UPPER TX
COAST INTO SWRN LA.
..PETERS.. 03/08/2005
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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