Mar-10-2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 10 00:38:04 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050310 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050310 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050310 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050310 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 100035
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 PM CST WED MAR 09 2005
   
   VALID 100100Z - 101200Z.
   
   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...
   DESPITE LOW DEWPOINTS AND WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONG INSOLATION
   ...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT/500 MB TEMPERATURES
   -23 TO -26C/ WAS SUFFICIENT FOR A BAND OF SHALLOW BASED
   THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...LIGHTNING
   THREAT SHOULD END PRIOR TO 02Z.
   
   ...SRN FL PENINSULA...
   AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS
   THE FL PENINSULA...AS A HIGH LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD
   ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN SERN GULF.
   HOWEVER...EVENING SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA SHOW A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN
   MOSTLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..IMY.. 03/10/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z