SPC AC 111307
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2005
   
   VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
   SAV 35 SSE CLT GSO 15 WNW RIC WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GON 15 WNW PVD
   15 SE BOS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SSI 35 NW AGS
   AVL 30 W DCA 20 ENE BWI 20 NE ACY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW EVV 15 W UIN
   25 SSE OTM 10 SE CID 35 SSE DBQ 40 SW RFD 10 NE IND 35 SSE IND 30 NE
   OWB 40 WSW EVV.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE
   CAROLINAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   DEEP POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN NEAR JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
   SERIES OF IMPULSES ROTATE ABOUT IT.  LEAD DISTURBANCE NOW OVER MO/NW
   AR/ERN OK SHOULD SHIFT RAPIDLY E ACROSS THE TN VLY TODAY... AND
   REACH THE NC/SC PIEDMONT BY 00Z SATURDAY.  AT THE SAME TIME
   ...EXPECT THAT UPSTREAM JET MAX NOW DROPPING S ACROSS MANITOBA WILL
   BE OVER ERN IA/WRN IL.
   
   COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME BETTER
   DEFINED AS IT CROSSES THE PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLAIN OF VIRGINIA AND
   THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY...AND MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT. 
   COLD FRONT WITH THE MANITOBA SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ATTM OVER NRN MN. 
   THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY AS IT ACCELERATES SSE ACROSS THE
   MID MS VLY TODAY...AND INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY SATURDAY.
   
   ...CAROLINAS/VA...
   A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL
   EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DESTABILIZE
   CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
   
   COOL MEAN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL
   LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.  BUT UNUSUALLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES /ON THE ORDER OF 8 DEGREES PER KM/ AND LARGE
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS /AROUND 30 DEGREES/ WILL BE PRESENT
   OVER REGION...AND FAST /80 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL
   AT MID LEVELS. THUS... SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
   CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THAT COULD AUGMENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND YIELD
   DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS...IF STORMS OR SHOWERS DO INDEED FORM.
   
   THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT WHILE MO/AR IMPULSE
   IS FAIRLY STRONG...VORT SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CHANNELED. THIS AGREES
   WITH LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICT RATHER MODEST
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AS SYSTEM DRIVES ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS AND VA LATER TODAY.  WHILE THE MEAN WLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP ...UNDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES WILL FOSTER GUST FRONT LONGEVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   HIGH WIND.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
   EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   ...MID MS VLY...
   ISOLATED THUNDER MAY DEVELOP IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG SSE-MOVING JET
   STREAK LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WHERE ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY YIELD SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SURFACE.
   
   ..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 03/11/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z