Mar-12-2005 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 12 19:44:01 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050312 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050312 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050312 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050312 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 121941
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2005
   
   VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 W TUS 40
   NNE TUS 30 W SAD 20 ENE SAD 40 WNW SVC 25 SSW SVC 70 SSW DMN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S 3HT 20 NNW COD
   50 WSW COD 40 NNW JAC 20 SE DLN 55 W BTM MSO 25 SE FCA 35 SW CTB 25
   S 3HT.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
   GPS PW AND GOES SATL PW ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THERE HAS BEEN A MINOR
   INCREASE IN MSTR ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN AZ THE PAST 24-HRS WITH 10-15 MM
   VALUES IN THE LWR DESERTS.  DIURNAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
   MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO SERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   MLCAPES 700-800 J/KG GIVEN A 84/36 SURFACE PARCEL.  BUOYANCY COUPLED
   WITH FAVORABLE UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING
   ACROSS SRN AZ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLD TSTMS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES
   WILL EXIST ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER...BUT A TSTM MIGHT DEVELOP AS
   FAR NORTH AS THE CATALINAS/RINCONS IN SERN AZ AND AS FAR EAST AS THE
   CEDAR MTNS IN SWRN NM. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSOLVE AFTER
   SUNSET/LOSS OF HEATING.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...BUT
   GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...WRN MT...
   ISOLD TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS OF SWRN MT THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF A 70 KT H5 JET DIGGING SWD INTO
   THE NRN GREAT BASIN.  ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD AS FAR SEWD AS THE TETONS
   OF NWRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..RACY.. 03/12/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z