SPC AC 161934
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CST WED MAR 16 2005
   
   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 60
   SSE FMY ...CONT... 30 WNW CTY 45 SE VLD 15 E SSI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW 7R4 MCB MEI
   0A8 ATL 10 SSE CAE ILM ...CONT... 30 S PBI 65 NNE EYW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 ESE LWT
   COD SUN 80 S S80 S80 10 SSE LWS 15 W EPH 15 SE SEA 25 WNW CLM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS
   PARTS OF NRN FL AND THE FL PEN....
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC HIGH-LEVEL JET...AROUND CREST OF SHORT WAVE
   RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING OFF THE
   NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.  STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED INTO
   SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
   OFF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COASTS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN
   VEERED...SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   WHICH WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING EDGE
   OF CONVECTIVE LINE NOW MIGRATING INTO FLORIDA GULF COASTAL AREAS.
   
   WHILE THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTIES...CONVECTIVE LINE
   HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.  ACTIVITY...WHICH 
   EXTENDS INTO AREAS SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA...APPEARS LIKELY TO
   OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PENINSULA LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW /ON THE ORDER
   OF 40 TO 50 KT/ DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A THREAT IN STRONGER
   CONVECTION.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
   LINE...WHERE CAPPING IS WEAKEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   PENINSULA.  THIS IS PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING...AND CELLS SHOULD PERSIST...DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEASTWARD IN
   PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  THOUGH HODOGRAPHS ARE OR WILL BECOME MOSTLY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL...SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...PERHAPS HAIL AS WELL.
   
   WHILE ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE MAY DIMINISH WITH
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...IMPULSE OR IMPULSES WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
   STREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF LINE OFF
   THE FLORIDA GULF COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.  AS UPSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS
   OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...LINE WILL GRADUALLY PRESS EASTWARD
   ACROSS COASTAL AREAS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. 
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ...NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
   STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY.  BEST CHANCE APPEARS FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
   WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
   IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA...AS TROUGH DIGS FROM THE VANCOUVER ISLAND
   AREA INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/16/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z