SPC AC 250608
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 AM CST FRI MAR 25 2005
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW
   LFK 20 WNW AUS 45 SW BWD 30 NNE ABI 20 SW SPS 20 SSE ADM 35 SSW PGO
   45 NNW HOT 25 W UNO 60 SE VIH 40 WSW EVV 45 W LOZ 15 N TYS 40 ESE
   CHA 20 SE HSV 45 W CBM 35 S MLU 45 SW LFK.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
   PNS 25 WSW PNS 40 N CEW 35 SSW CSG 35 SE MCN 40 ENE SAV ...CONT...
   15 SSW FMY 35 N PBI 15 SSW FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 55 SSW JCT
   10 ESE MAF 45 NNW HOB 45 NE SAD 10 NNW PHX 30 SSE LAS 40 N U31 65
   WSW BOI 15 E S80 20 WNW DLN 25 ENE RWL 35 S LIC 35 SSW GAG 35 ENE
   FSI 30 NNW MLC 45 SSW JLN 50 SW SZL 35 S IRK 20 SW SPI 35 SSE BMG 30
   N JKL SSU 35 WNW RIC 10 SSW WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MOB 55 NNE MOB
   40 ESE MEI 25 NW MEI 30 W JAN 10 SSW ESF 35 SE BPT.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY...SWWD INTO
   NRN TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL INTO SRN
   GA...
   
   ...MID MS/TN VALLEY...
   
   LATE DAY1 CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS TRANSLATED INTO EXTREME ERN OK/NWRN
   AR/SWRN MO AHEAD OF DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE
   WILL MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH FAST WLY
   FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.  OF PARTICULAR
   CONCERN IS THE EXTENT OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT HAS BECOME
   ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR STRONG
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW WITH STRONG WLY FLOW
   THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.  IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT EARLY MORNING
   CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN THEN REINTENSIFY ALONG E-W BOUNDARY AS
   DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCES BAROCLINIC ZONE.  STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT...IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM IN LOWEST 3 KM...WILL FAVOR QUICK
   MOVING BOW-TYPE FEATURES FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SOUTH INTO THE
   WARM SECTOR.  IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL SEEMS A GOOD BET GIVEN THE
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
   
   ...TX...
   
   FARTHER SW ACROSS TX...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ATOP RETREATING
   WARM FRONT WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AHEAD OF SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER
   THE SRN ROCKIES.  00Z MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING
   LLJ ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AFTER DARK IN RESPONSE
   TO THIS SYSTEM.  MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
   OF HIGHER QUALITY THAN EARLIER SYSTEMS THE LAST FEW DAYS.  PARCELS
   LIFTED NEAR 850 MB SHOULD EASILY YIELD CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN
   STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL
   LIKELY PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
   WITH AN UPWARD EVOLVING CLUSTER/MCS INTO NERN TX BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN GA/NRN FL...
   
   STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
   GENERATING SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION BENEATH THE SRN
   STREAM EARLY THIS MORNING.  BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS NRN FL INTO SRN GA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS LLJ
   VEERS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THIS REGION.  DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND WITH
   INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE.  06Z RADAR DATA
   SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE FL
   PANHANDLE...SPREADING NEWD TOWARD THE COAST.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   SPREAD INLAND WITH TIME AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM. 
   LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LEADING ELEVATED
   ACTIVITY...HOWEVER AS DEW POINTS RISE THE PROSPECTS FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS OR PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES BECOMES A GREATER RISK.
   
   ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 03/25/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z