Apr- 3-2005 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 3 05:20:06 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050403 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050403 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050403 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050403 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 030517
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 PM CST SAT APR 02 2005
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE RRT 45 WNW AXN
   25 ESE ABR 40 NNW PIR 55 SSE 81V 10 SSW CPR 20 SE RKS 45 NE U24 55 S
   ELY 50 ESE FAT 50 S MRY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW PBG 40 WNW GFL
   15 SW MSV 40 W ABE 25 WSW IPT 25 ENE BFD 20 SSW BUF.
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
   AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS
   THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS DEEP...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NEWD
   INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO GREAT BASIN.
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONCURRENTLY
   DEVELOP NNEWD THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND.
   FARTHER W...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   REGION WITH WARM FRONT INTENSIFYING FROM THIS LOW SEWD INTO THE
   UPPER MIDWEST...AND COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
   ROCKIES.
   
   DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH PROXIMITY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT A FEW
   TSTMS TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NRN PA INTO WRN/CNTRL NY. ELSEWHERE...
   INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AND RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN EWD EXPANSION IN TSTM COVERAGE
   THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN GREAT BASIN EWD
   INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL MORE ELEVATED TSTMS MAY ALSO
   DEVELOP TONIGHT N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NRN PLAINS
   WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME.
   
   ..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 04/03/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z