SPC AC 051552
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1052 AM CDT TUE APR 05 2005
   
   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
   MLC 15 NNW END 40 E DDC 40 N DDC 40 SW HLC 30 SSE MCK 30 SSW BBW 30
   NE BUB 20 W FSD 20 SSE OTG 30 ENE OMA 35 SSE P35 30 SE VIH 35 NNW
   MEM 25 SW TUP 15 SSE MEI 30 SSE MCB 45 NE HOU CLL 35 ENE ACT 30 W
   MLC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 50 SSE AUS
   25 S FTW 45 SW ADM FSI 50 ENE AMA 35 SSW EHA 35 SE LHX 30 S AKO 50
   SE JMS 15 W INL ...CONT... 75 WNW ANJ 20 WNW OSC 15 E FNT FDY 25 NNE
   EVV 25 NW HOP 15 N MSL 25 WSW PNS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLNS AND LWR MS VLY...
   
   ...SERN KS/SWRN MO SWD INTO ERN PARTS OK/TX...
   VIGOROUS UPPER LOW VCNTY TX/OK PNHDL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
   SEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY JET MAX DRIVES SEWD
   INTO CNTRL/ERN TX.  993MB LOW OVER SWRN KS WILL FOLLOW IN TANDEM...
   SETTLING INTO CNTRL/ERN OK THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE DRYLINE WILL MIX
   EWD TO ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO ERN OK
   AND NERN TX BY EVENING.
   
   MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS
   ADVECTING NWD BENEATH A STOUT EML RESULTING IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
   OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES/LIFT SPREAD EWD...CINH SHOULD ERODE SUFFICIENTLY TO
   SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE 21-00Z ERN OK INTO
   ERN TX.
   
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   SEVERE TSTMS.  HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE...LONGER-LIVED
   SUPERCELLS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ARKLATEX INTO SERN OK WHERE THE 2-6KM
   SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN NORMAL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY THE LONGEST. 
   FARTHER N INTO SERN KS/NERN OK/NWRN AR...BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH
   TIME...GIVEN APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW... RESULTS IN A MEAN 2-6KM
   SHEAR VECTOR MORE PARALLEL WITH THE DRYLINE AND WILL LIKELY RESULT
   IN QUICKLY EVOLVING SHORT LINE SEGMENTS.
   
   INITIAL CELLS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL
   BECOME MORE OF A THREAT LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ENEWD INTO
   SRN MO...AR AND NERN TX.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED/LEE-TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM THE
   SURFACE LOW INTO CNTRL NEB AND ERN SD AND A BULGING DRYLINE IN SWRN
   KS.  TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER WAS MOISTENING
   WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. VSBL SATELLITE ALSO
   SHOWS MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSOLATION OCCURRING ACROSS CNTRL KS.
   
   COMBO OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINEAR FORCING NORTH OF THE
   UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NW-SE ARCING BANDS OF TSTMS FROM CNTRL
   KS NWD INTO SCNTRL NEB BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY RESULT.  INITIAL STORMS MAY ALSO POSE AN ISOLD
   TORNADO THREAT...PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL KS NWD INTO SCNTRL NEB.  TSTMS
   WILL LIKELY EXPAND NWD ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH BENEATH DEFORMATION
   ZONE ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALSO WITH HAIL/WIND THREATS.
   
   ...LOWER MS VLY LATE TONIGHT...
   LATEST NAM...WRF AND 09Z SREF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS LA INTO MS LATE TONIGHT...OR EVOLVE FROM THE SRN END
   OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS SRN AR/NERN TX...AS A SECONDARY
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO ERN TX.  BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY
   MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE ACROSS LA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWER 60S DEW
   POINTS ALREADY TO SRN LA.  THE LLJ WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK FROM SRN
   LA INTO WRN MS AND GIVEN APPROACH OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE.  THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE SLGT FARTHER
   EWD INTO MS.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO THE MAIN
   THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NRN
   PERIPHERY OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...MAINLY S OF
   I-20.
   
   ..RACY/BANACOS.. 04/05/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z