SPC AC 071541
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1041 AM CDT THU APR 07 2005
   
   VALID 071630Z - 081200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
   VRB 55 SSE FMY ...CONT... 25 WSW PFN 25 ENE TOI 35 SSW HSV 40 S CKV
   15 SSE BWG 10 SSW LOZ 15 NNE AND 20 N CAE 25 WNW SOP RDU 45 W ECG 25
   E ECG.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW CTB 40 NNE BZN
   20 WSW BPI 20 W PUC 25 SSW CDC 25 NNE DRA 55 NNW NID 15 SSW SFO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE PNS 55 NNW CEW
   35 SE MEI 35 N HEZ 25 ESE ELD 10 N HOT 30 SE HRO 25 N UNO 10 SE IND
   25 NW ZZV 30 ENE PIT 20 WSW IPT 20 NNE POU 10 SSE BOS.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY/SRN
   APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST/FL...
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN TWO REGIMES TODAY...FIRST OF WHICH WILL
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALL LINE NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN SC SWWD TO OFF
   THE NW FL COAST.  SECOND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO PRECEED
   STRONG ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANY PRIMARY
   COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
   AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TOWARDS THE SERN COASTLINE
   TONIGHT.
   
   ...ERN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...
   THOUGH NRN END OF CURRENT SQUALL LINE HAS WEAKENED AND 12Z SOUNDINGS
   FROM JAX AND CHS INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERSION LAYER
   BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB...VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL
   STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING
   WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING LINE INTO SERN SC/SERN GA THIS
   MORNING.  BY THE AFTERNOON...FURTHER HEATING AND MOISTENING OF THE
   LOW LEVELS OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS.  IN ADDITION... LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND MAINTAIN ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES. 
   THIS MAY OFFSET MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/MLCAPES AND SUPPORT DAMAGING
   WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS LINE MOVES OFF THE
   CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ...FL...
   SEVERE THREAT MAY BE MORE PREVALENT WITH TRAILING PORTION OF SQUALL
   LINE AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN FL THIS AFTERNOON. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY
   IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  HOWEVER...INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY RICHER
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AND WILL AID DESTABILIZATION
   AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR...THIS WILL
   INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY QUESTION WILL BE COMPONENT
   OF NEWD STORM MOTIONS RELATIVE TO ESEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
   THIS MAY KEEP MANY OF THE STORMS SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
   FRONT AND INHIBIT WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER SHOULD
   STORMS MOVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC GRADIENT OR TURN RIGHT WITH
   SUFFICIENT SPEED TO MOVE INTO WARM SECTOR...THEN STEEP LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL ENHANCE THE
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. TORNADO
   THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AS SURFACE
   T-TD SPREADS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 DEGREES.  AS COLD FRONT SURGES
   SSEWD LATER TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE REMAINDER OF FL OVERNIGHT.  STRENGTH OF SHEAR SUPPORTS A
   THREAT OF
   AT LEAST A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.
   
   ...ERN AL/WRN GA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY THE MID AFTERNOON FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN AL AND WRN GA.  MORNING VISIBLE
   IMAGERY AND MESO-SCALE ANALYSES SUPPORT THIS WITH CLEARING AND LOWER
   60F SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING IN PLACE.  ANOTHER AREA OF
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN
   AND POSSIBLY SERN KY UNDER VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.  SHEAR WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND SUPPORT MORE
   ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM STRUCTURES SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP SWD
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN AL/GA AND POSSIBLY THE FL PANHANDLE. 
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS
   OF HEATING.
   
   ..EVANS/BANACOS.. 04/07/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z