SPC AC 100613
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2005
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
   P28 45 NNW P28 40 WNW HUT 25 NE HUT 25 E EMP 45 NE CNU 15 NNW JLN 15
   W FYV 50 S PGO 35 N GGG 10 SSW TYR 35 S DAL 25 SW FTW 30 NW FTW 35
   ESE FSI 15 WSW OKC 45 WNW END 25 WSW P28.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
   GLS 35 N VCT 25 NNW SAT 35 ENE JCT 10 N BWD 10 N SPS 15 NE GAG 40 E
   LBL 25 NW LBL 35 NNE EHA 50 ENE LAA 55 SW HLC 30 NNW HLC EAR 30 SW
   OFK 25 NNE YKN 20 S BKX 40 ENE BKX 20 NW MKT 30 SW RST 20 NE ALO 25
   WSW BRL 35 WNW STL 40 WNW MDH 30 NW DYR 55 S GLH 35 N LFT 35 WSW
   7R4.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 30 S OLM 10 NNE
   SLE 50 ESE OTH 10 SSE 4BK.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CRP 10 WNW NIR
   30 SE HDO 20 NNW HDO 45 ENE SJT 40 SE LBB 30 S 4CR SAD 45 E PHX 25
   SSE GCN 35 NE CNY 35 NNE CAG 35 NE LAR 20 NW AIA 60 W VTN 25 SSW MBG
   30 WSW JMS 75 NE DVL ...CONT... 45 ENE ELO 40 SE ESC 25 SSE DTW 25
   WNW ZZV 55 WSW UNI 45 NE OWB 10 SE PAH 25 W MKL 25 SSE GWO 35 SSE
   MCB 45 WSW BVE.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/SERN KS...CENTRAL/ERN OK AND NORTH
   CENTRAL/NERN TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SRN MN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM NM/SRN CO TODAY REACHING SWRN
   KS/OK PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
   SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SLOW EWD TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE
   OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AT 12Z TO ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER NEAR 50 S DDC
   BY 11/00Z...BEFORE THE LOW TRACKS NEWD TOWARD NERN KS TONIGHT. DRY
   LINE WILL MIX EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SWRN
   KS TO WEST CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL TX BY 21Z.  MEANWHILE...A COLD
   FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWWD ACROSS NEB TO
   ERN CO WILL MOVE E AND SE...REACHING WRN MN TO NEAR OMA TO THE
   SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS AT 11/00Z.
   
   ...SRN/SERN KS SWD TO NRN/NERN TX EWD TO MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
   LEAD MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS
   CLOSED LOW NOSING INTO SWRN KS/WRN OK AT 12Z WILL TRANSLATE EWD
   TODAY TO OK/AR BORDER BY 11/00Z AS IT SPREADS INTO NRN MO.  SECOND
   STRONGER 85 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF
   THE CLOSED LOW AND NOSE INTO CENTRAL/NERN TX BY 00Z.  STRONG SLY LLJ
   OVER WRN TX TO WRN KS AT START OF PERIOD WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS
   MORNING BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING TO 40 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
   EXTENDS FROM ERN TX/LA TO ERN KS BY 11/00Z.
   
   THIS SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD AND
   NWWD ACROSS THE SRN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 60S SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO AR TO SRN KS-SWRN KS
   BY 21Z.  MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ELEVATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WRN TX
   WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN KS AND OK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 
   ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND ALONG/E OF THE
   DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING
   ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.  AS MID
   LEVEL COOLING/STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD ATOP THE SURFACE
   THERMAL/LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS TOWARD 00Z...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
   DEVELOP FROM SRN KS INTO NRN TX.
   
   MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM
   SWRN KS SSEWD INTO CENTRAL OK /JUST W OF OKC/ TO NORTH CENTRAL TX BY
   LATE AFTERNOON OR POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS 00Z.  STRONG DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY ALONG THE DRY LINE.  LINEAR
   FORCING WILL THEN RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN
   KS...CENTRAL/ERN OK AND NRN TX THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
   POTENTIALLY REACHING SRN MO TO WRN LA/SERN TX BY 12Z MONDAY.  VERY
   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   THE INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS AND ALSO EWD WITH THE SQUALL LINE. 
   
   ...WRN KS TO SRN MN/IA...
   MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD NEWD TO SRN MN TODAY IN
   ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH AN AXIS OF MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG
   POSSIBLE FROM WRN KS NEWD TO IA/SRN MO.  INCREASING LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE LEAD MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  HOWEVER...A
   TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN KS TO ERN NEB/WRN IA AS A
   SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS NEWD OVER THIS AREA.
   
   ...PORTIONS WI/NRN IL TO NRN IND/SWRN LOWER MI...
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF 35 KT WLY MID LEVEL
   JET OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG A
   WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD INTO WI/NRN IL TO NRN IND BY 00Z IS EXPECTED
   TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK
   INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL EVENTS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/10/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z