Apr-17-2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun Apr 17 16:18:03 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 171615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2005 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FST 45 N MRF 10 N GDP 40 E ALM 15 NE 4CR 55 SSE RTN 55 SSW LAA 30 SW MCK 35 NNE HLC 25 WSW RSL 35 ESE DDC 35 ENE GAG 45 SSW CDS 35 SSE BGS 30 SSE FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HVR 35 E LVM 30 WNW IDA 25 WSW SUN 60 W BOI 55 SE RDM 30 NW RDM PDX 10 NNE OLM BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE RRT 30 ENE AXN STJ 50 ENE OKC 10 E BWD 70 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW DMN 70 NNW SVC 40 W FMN 25 NW MTJ 20 N EGE CYS 55 NW CDR 25 SW REJ 45 ESE GDV 60 N ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... WHILE COLD TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTO PAC NW...A WEAK SRN BRANCH IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NEWD FROM CO/NRN NM INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL ON BOTH WV IMAGERY AND THE ACARS WINDS WITH A VORT MAX VICINITY ALS ATTM. A 30 PLUS KT LLJ THAT EXTENDS FROM LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWD THRU SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO WRN KS IS CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT A STEADILY INCREASING AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD. ATOP THIS MOISTURE THERE PERSISTS AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM. CURRENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF CENTRAL ROCKIES S/WV TROUGH SHOULD THIN AND/OR DISSIPATE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WRN KS INTO OK/TX PANHANDLE AREAS WITH LITTLE CIN REMAINING AFTER 21Z. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER HIGH PLAINS VICINITY OF CO/KS BORDER SUPPORTED BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT REMAINS MARGINAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR UP TO 20KT WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH BASED ROTATING STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AS WELL AS LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS GIVEN EXPECTED 30F T/TD SPREADS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD AND BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT. FURTHER S INTO ERN NM/WRN TX STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND DRIFT EWD INTO WRN TX THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE BUT CAPPING COULD BE MORE OF A DETERRENT TO DEVELOPMENT DUE TO GREATER AMOUNT OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER TO SLOW HEATING AND A LITTLE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE IS LIKELY BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WILL BE LINKED TO PERSISTENT SLY LLJ THRU WRN TX. ...NRN PLAINS... STRONG HEATING WRN DAKOTAS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO 80S APPROACHING 90F WRN SD...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. MOST LIKELY THREAT AREA WILL BE WCENTRAL SD ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE MUCAPES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG SD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30KT EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MAY REQUIRE A PORTION OF THIS AREA TO BE UPGRADED IN AFTERNOON OUTLOOK. ..HALES/CROSBIE.. 04/17/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |