May 12, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Thu May 12 17:48:07 UTC 2005 | |
Public Severe Weather Outlook | |
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The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event. |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
SPC AC 121744 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 25 SSW P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 20 ENE FLV MHK 20 E CNK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 E OFK 15 SSE FOD 35 SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 SE END 75 ESE LBB 35 NNE HOB 40 W CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 NW INK 45 WSW CAO 30 S PUB 15 NNE ALS 25 NW DRO 30 ENE U17 15 SSW PUC 45 SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 15 ESE CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK 25 W EAR 25 ENE MHE 60 ESE BRD 20 WNW IMT 55 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 20 S CRW 30 NNE SSU 25 ESE EKN 20 NNW CHO 35 ENE LYH 20 WSW ECG 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CRE 50 N AGS 30 ESE RMG 30 NW BHM 30 ENE LUL 45 NNW GPT 40 NNW BTR 25 SSW GLH 25 WNW MEM 30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 40 ESE TBN 25 S TBN 25 NW HRO 20 S ACT 40 E SAT 35 E COT 65 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY... CORRECTED GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ...WEST TX PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL KS... WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY SEWD MOTION THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SWWD TO JUST SE OF GAG TO W OF PVW AT 15Z. HEATING/MIXING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING E-W BETWEEN LBB AND PVW ON THE SOUTH END. FRONT SHOULD MIX/LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD NORTH OF PVW LATER TODAY AND WNWWD INTO NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST THIS MORNING ACROSS WARM SECTOR...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INITIATING ALONG SWRN PORTION OF FRONT OVER WEST TX PLAINS/FAR E-CENTRAL NM AND LIFT NEWD JUST BEHIND FRONT. RISK OF HAIL...INCLUDING ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL STONES...SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE NEAR THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP...AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH SLY LLJ REMAINING ANCHORED AND INCREASING OVER NWRN TX...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE SVR MCS/S LATER TODAY AND LIFT NNEWD WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. ...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL... SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD ACROSS SERN NEB TODAY AND ALLOW WARM FRONT TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO NRN MO/FAR SRN IA. AIR MASS WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM SECTOR...INCLUDING NARROW AREA EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA...GIVEN EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S AND PRESENCE OF LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AS THEY LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SRN IL TODAY. SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION BY 21Z FROM ERN MO INTO SRN IL. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED OVER SRN IL WITHIN 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST MULTICELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..EVANS.. 05/12/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z