Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 121744
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1244 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005
   
   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
   CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 25
   SSW P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
   CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 20 ENE FLV MHK
   20 E CNK.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
   CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 E OFK 15 SSE FOD 35
   SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 SE
   END 75 ESE LBB 35 NNE HOB 40 W CAO.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 NW INK
   45 WSW CAO 30 S PUB 15 NNE ALS 25 NW DRO 30 ENE U17 15 SSW PUC 45
   SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 15 ESE CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK 25 W EAR
   25 ENE MHE 60 ESE BRD 20 WNW IMT 55 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S
   JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 20 S CRW 30 NNE SSU 25 ESE EKN 20 NNW CHO
   35 ENE LYH 20 WSW ECG 35 N HSE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CRE 50 N AGS 30
   ESE RMG 30 NW BHM 30 ENE LUL 45 NNW GPT 40 NNW BTR 25 SSW GLH 25 WNW
   MEM 30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 40 ESE TBN 25 S TBN 25 NW HRO 20 S ACT 40
   E SAT 35 E COT 65 NW LRD.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE
   INTO WRN OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN
   IA AND NWRN MO...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
   
   CORRECTED GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
   
   ...WEST TX PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL KS...
   WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY SEWD MOTION THIS
   MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SWWD TO JUST SE OF GAG TO W OF PVW
   AT 15Z.  HEATING/MIXING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW
   FORWARD PROGRESS WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING E-W BETWEEN LBB AND PVW
   ON THE SOUTH END.  FRONT SHOULD MIX/LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD NORTH OF PVW
   LATER TODAY AND WNWWD INTO NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. 
   AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST THIS MORNING ACROSS WARM
   SECTOR...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
   ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT THIS
   AFTERNOON.  IN FACT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INITIATING ALONG SWRN
   PORTION OF FRONT OVER WEST TX PLAINS/FAR E-CENTRAL NM AND LIFT NEWD
   JUST BEHIND FRONT.  RISK OF HAIL...INCLUDING ISOLATED VERY LARGE
   HAIL STONES...SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.  OTHER ISOLATED
   DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE NEAR THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS HEATING
   WEAKENS CAP...AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
   OF STRONG UPPER JET SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR
   SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  WITH SLY LLJ REMAINING
   ANCHORED AND INCREASING OVER NWRN TX...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO
   ONE OR MORE SVR MCS/S LATER TODAY AND LIFT NNEWD WELL INTO THE
   EVENING ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.
   
   ...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL...
   SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD ACROSS SERN NEB TODAY AND ALLOW
   WARM FRONT TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO NRN MO/FAR SRN IA.  AIR MASS WILL
   LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM
   SECTOR...INCLUDING NARROW AREA EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN NEB/SWRN
   IA...GIVEN EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S AND PRESENCE OF
   LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS.  COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND
   HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED
   TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE
   HAIL AS THEY LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
   AND EAST OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SRN IL TODAY.  SHEAR
   IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
   THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MIXING
   AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION BY 21Z FROM ERN MO
   INTO SRN IL.  STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED OVER SRN IL WITHIN
   20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST
   MULTICELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..EVANS.. 05/12/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z