SPC AC 151605
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005
   
   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 40
   SSE CAE 40 NW AGS AND HKY LYH 35 ENE CHO DOV 10 ESE ACY.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
   ELP 20 E TCS ONM 4CR GDP FST 45 NE P07 35 ESE P07.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 20 NNW SAD
   55 NE INW 35 SSW GJT CAG RWL 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25 NNE JAC 60 WNW
   OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE BFL 35 WNW BFL 35
   S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW
   PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 35 ESE SEP 50 SSW LFK 20 S
   POE 40 NNW BTR 25 NNE MCB 30 WSW TCL 10 WSW CHA 40 ESE 5I3 40 NNW
   SSU 10 ENE MGW ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
   AND MID ATLANTIC STATES`...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND
   WEST TX...
   
   ...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH SERIES OF
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
   OH/TN VALLEYS. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN VA INTO
   NORTHERN AL.  AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT IS MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM GA INTO SOUTHEAST VA.  AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE
   SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC...ACROSS
   CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...INTO SOUTHEAST VA.  THIS REGION SHOULD SEE
   CONSIDERABLE HEATING TODAY LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
   AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AL/GA WILL
   ALSO AFFECT THIS REGION LATER TODAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS
   REGION SHOW 20-30 KNOT UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ALOFT...
   SUGGESTING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. 
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS
   MAXIMIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS MAY SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE
   SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC COAST THIS EVENING.
   
   ...NM/TX...
   LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST
   TX THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SURGING
   SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
   EXISTS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL ERODE SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
   DESTABILIZE AIRMASS.  PRESENT INDICATION ARE THAT WESTERN/SOUTHERN
   FRINGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STRONG/SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY AID IN THE
   THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ...NERN NM INTO WY/NEB...
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT
   HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST NM/EASTERN CO/SOUTHEAST WY/NEB PANHANDLE. 
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S. 
   HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
   AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD
   EASTWARD.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. 
   HOWEVER...ISOLATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ..HART/JEWELL.. 05/15/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z