SPC AC 171952
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005
   
   VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
   ISN MOT ATY BIE RSL 50 N GCK GLD IML CDR 20 E 81V 45 SW 4BQ 70 WNW
   MLS 80 NW GGW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
   DAB 55 SSE CTY 40 WNW CTY 15 WNW AYS 35 SE AGS 20 W FLO 25 ENE CRE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH
   ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SW
   MRF 20 SSW INK 40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 10 SW EHA 30 SSW LAA 25 SE PUB
   ALS 40 NE DRO 45 WSW MTJ 50 NE U28 30 WNW VEL 15 WNW BPI LVM 40 NE
   CTB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 15 SW ALI 20 NNW
   NIR 55 S CLL 35 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30
   SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO ERN MT...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
   U.S....
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER
   LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL WY TOWARD SERN MT. 
   AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN
   WY INTO ERN MT WHERE AIRMASS HAS STEADILY DESTABILIZED...SBCAPES IN
   ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A
   GRADUAL MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
   LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR GGW
   TO RAP.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH ALONG SHARPENING LEE TROUGH...SLOWLY THINNING BAND OF
   HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SHIFTING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   CO/WY. STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR AS THIS CLOUDINESS SHIFTS EAST
   OF THE DRYLINE ALLOWING SFC BOUNDARY TO BECOME MORE RECEPTIVE FOR
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION. INHIBITION IS SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM SOUTH
   THROUGH NORTH ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE.  IN THE ABSENCE
   OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT...A FEW MORE HOURS OF
   HEATING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...POST DRYLINE CU
   FIELD IS EXPANDING EWD OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE.  THIS IS POTENTIALLY A
   STRONG INDICATION FOR DOWNSTREAM SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN
   KS/SWRN NEB BY 21-22Z. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREAT.
   
   ...SERN U.S...
   
   SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED
   ACROSS THE SERN U.S. FROM COASTAL GA INTO NRN FL PENINSULA WHERE
   SBCAPE VALUES ARE HOLDING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG
   CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED IN THIS REGION WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE WEST
   COAST SEA BREEZE IN NRN FL...AND NEAR THE COAST ACROSS GA INTO SC. 
   A GRADUAL UPWARD EVOLUTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH EXPANDING
   PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  A FEW STORMS
   MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL UNTIL THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES WITH
   LOSS OF HEATING.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/17/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z