May 29, 2005 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sun May 29 17:16:34 UTC 2005 | |
Public Severe Weather Outlook | |
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The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation. Please read the latest public statement about this event. |
Categorical Graphic |
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
SPC AC 291649 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005 VALID 291630Z - 301200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLS 25 SW PSX 10 N ALI 30 ESE COT 10 SE HDO 55 W AUS 40 WSW TPL 10 E TPL 45 SW LFK 55 S LFK 15 NNE GLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE EVW 35 NNW PUC 50 ESE U24 20 ENE MLF 30 W MLF 30 SE ELY 35 NNE ELY 45 W ENV 50 NW ENV 50 SSW TWF 35 NNW TWF 25 E SUN 30 NNW PIH 45 SE IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 30 SE EVW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 45 E AMA 50 SW AMA 35 SW TCC 20 NNE LVS 15 NE ALS 50 WSW COS 20 NW COS 25 SSE LIC 50 SSE GLD 40 NNW CNK 40 SSE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE UIN 25 N COU 30 ESE MKC 30 WSW ICT GAG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO TCL 30 W AUO 25 NNW DHN 20 WNW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 45 WNW FLG 40 ESE SGU LOL 35 WNW SVE 15 WNW LMT 25 ESE SLE OLM 15 NE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 15 NE LWS 55 WSW MSO 50 W GTF 30 E GTF 30 WNW LWT 50 ESE LWT 45 NE SHR 50 N DGW AIA 15 ESE BBW 25 S OLU 30 ENE OMA 20 ESE MCW 20 ESE MKT 60 SW FAR 20 SE P24 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 20 E BHB ...CONT... 10 S ACY 20 ESE HGR 20 NNW MGW 35 NE ZZV 20 N CMH 30 NNW LEX 10 SW SDF 10 ESE EVV 25 NNW HOP 25 NNW BNA 20 SSE CSV 35 NW AND 40 SE CAE 30 E CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 30 SSE GNV 20 W CTY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SERN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN ID INTO CENTRAL UT... ...SYNOPSIS... ELONGATED COLD TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED MID/UPR LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN CA. THIS LEAVES A CONTINUED BLOCKING LIKE PATTERN OVER THE NRN U.S. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT BASICALLY REACHED FROM SERN CO THRU NRN MO AND CENTRAL IL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO ELONGATED NATURE OF THE BLOCK ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. PREVIOUS DAYS OF CONVECTION HAVE LEFT A COLLECTION OF RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARIES ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES FOR AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS. NAM MODEL TAKES NRN CA LOW AND MOVES IT SLOWLY ESEWD TOWARDS SWRN UT. THE NAMKF HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE AS THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS UT AND THEN BREAKS OFF THE WRN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS TROUGH AND RETROGRADE IT INTO MT. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE WITH HEATING THE APPROACHING FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY... HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN CO NEWD INTO NRN MO. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... MODELS DEPICTED SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD ENHANCING UVVS IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE TYPE FLOW OVER SERN/E CENTRAL CO AND MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM S CENTRAL KS ENEWD INTO W CENTRAL MO. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...SRN AREAS OF TX EWD THRU THE LWR MS VLY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 12Z RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ASSOCD VORTICITY MAX OVER W CENTRAL TX IN THE MAF-ABI-SJT VICINITY. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WAVE...AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD/SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF TX...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING AN MCS DURING THE NIGHT. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAN THE 12Z NAM MODEL. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF TX WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA AS BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 M2/S2 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ...CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN NV THRU THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN PARTS OF ID SWWD INTO ERN NV/WRN UT. STEEP LAPSE RATES MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5C/KM INDICATES MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 05/29/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z