Jun 4, 2005 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Sat Jun 4 01:00:25 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 040056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW AKO 50 WSW GLD 40 NNW GCK CNK 30 NE MKC 20 ESE SZL SGF 40 SSW JLN GAG 20 SSE CAO 15 ESE RTN 35 SSW PUB 20 ESE FCL 15 NNW AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PNS 25 SSW MGM 25 W ATL 40 SE CSV 25 SSE LEX 50 E LUK 45 ESE PKB 25 ENE SSU 30 ESE LYH 20 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE INL 20 ENE DLH 30 NE LNR 30 SSE MMO 30 S MTO DYR 35 E MLU 40 WSW POE 55 S CLL 20 ENE HDO 40 SSE JCT 20 NW BWD 10 NNE CDS 30 NW AMA 25 ESE ABQ 25 N SOW 10 NE FLG 40 ENE GCN 30 NNE CNY 40 NNW CAG 20 ESE DGW 65 SSE 81V 35 ESE 81V 35 WNW REJ 35 N 4BQ 65 N SHR 40 E COD 45 SE IDA 40 NNW TWF 50 NNW BOI 30 NNE EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SRN STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS OK INTO SCNTRL KS...EXTENDING FROM A VORT CENTER NEAR ICT...SEWD TO NEAR TXK. STRONGEST CONVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SERN KS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SGF AND OUN SEEM TO BE MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF WARM SECTOR WITH A NARROW WEDGE OF REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS NOSING INTO SERN KS...ROUGHLY 7 C/KM. ALTHOUGH ABSOLUTE VALUES OF INSTABILITY ARE NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT...VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN KS INTO WRN MO BY LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES MAY BE OBSERVED WITH STRONGER STORMS. UPSTREAM...AN ORGANIZING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM ADAMS COUNTY CO...SWD TO OTERO COUNTY CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EAST AS FAVORABLE SELY INFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DDC SUGGESTS MINIMAL INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SWRN KS DOWNSTREAM...BUT STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS WRN OK INTO SCNTRL KS LATER TONIGHT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN MAINTAINING EWD PROPAGATION/NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK LATER TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL TX... CENTRAL TX CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED EARLY THIS EVENING AS INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS AN AGITATED CU FIELD OVER THE ESCARPMENT...EXTENDING INTO THE BACK EDGE OF THE DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFT. IN ALL LIKLIHOOD FORCING APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 06/04/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |