Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 092104
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005
   
   VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
   RSL 40 W END 25 SW CSM 35 N CDS 40 ENE AMA 20 SSW LBL 15 SW GLD 20
   WSW IML 15 NNW IML 25 S LBF 40 SSW EAR 40 E HLC 30 S RSL.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW
   LIC 40 ESE FCL 10 ESE CDR 35 E PHP 25 E RST 45 ENE ALO 50 W DSM 15
   NNW STJ 20 SSW EMP 25 NE ICT 30 N PNC 30 SSE PNC 35 SSW TUL 10 N MLC
   25 NNE ADM 45 NNE ABI 25 WSW ABI 40 SW SJT 35 E P07 20 SW P07 35 SW
   FST 35 WNW INK 30 NE CNM 45 ENE ROW 25 E CVS 25 ENE DHT 10 SSW LIC.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
   TVC 20 NW PLN 50 E APN 40 ENE MTC 35 E TOL 25 E FWA 20 ESE SBN 40 NE
   MKE 45 WNW TVC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW DVL 10 S DVL
   35 N FAR 15 WSW DLH 10 NNE IWD 20 NNW MQT ...CONT... 80 S MRF 25 ESE
   CNM 35 WSW CVS 50 SE LVS 15 E SAF 20 NW GNT 25 E INW 55 NNE DAG 25
   SSE TVL 25 NNE MHS 40 WNW RDM 55 NE 63S.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
   PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB...WRN KS...THE TX AND OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN SD INTO WRN TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT
   LAKES...
   
   AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF SLIGHT RISK TO NRN IA AND SRN MN
   
   ...SWRN NEB/WRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK...
   18Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS MODERATE RISK
   AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. MOREOVER...THESE DATA
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH CURRENT TIME HEIGHT PROFILER/VWP TENDS INDICATE
   INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM NERN NM ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDLS
   INTO SWRN KS. THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND
   35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   MESOANALYSIS...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND VWP DATA INDICATE A CORRIDOR
   OF LOWER LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
   IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR DDC SWD INTO NWRN
   OK...AS WELL AS NEAR SECONDARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS FROM S
   OF MCK TO NEAR HLC TO RSL. GIVEN DISCRETE STORM INITIATION AND
   EVOLUTION...AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE
   AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT SWWD ALONG DRYLINE OVER WRN TX INTO SERN NM. STORMS MAY
   CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSE A
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT PRIOR TO WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING.
   
   FARTHER E...PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING
   INTO EARLY AFTERNOON N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK. CONTINUED
   DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC
   ZONE MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   EVENING. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...SELY-ELY
   SURFACE WINDS INVOF OF BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   
   OVER NRN NEB INTO SRN SD...LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
   NEWD TODAY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY /PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING/. INSPECTION OF
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING NEWD ACROSS THE NEB PNHDL
   INTO SWRN SD IS LIKELY DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS OF
   E-CNTRL SD AND POSSIBLY SWRN MN. DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH NEWD
   EXTENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE
   HAIL WILL PERSIST FROM ALONG THE SD I-90 CORRIDOR SWWD INTO THE NEB
   SANDHILLS.
   
   ...SRN MN/NRN IA...
   AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/S OF QUASI-STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY FROM VICINITY OF SUX EWD ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN WITH MLCAPES
   NOW AROUND 2000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED SE OF SPW AND
   GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SOME
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
   
   ...LOWER MI...
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
   60S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED FROM NW OF TOL TO N OF MTC...AS WELL AS W OF APN WITHIN
   WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
   EVENING WITH APPROACH OF MCV CURRENTLY OVER WI. THOUGH VERTICAL
   SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/09/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z