Jun 24, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 24 12:48:04 UTC 2005
Categorical Graphic
20050624 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20050624 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20050624 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20050624 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
   SPC AC 241244
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0744 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005
   
   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC
   MKG MLI LWD CNK 30 SSE HLC 40 WNW GCK LAA PUB FCL CYS DGW SHR LVM
   BZN BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS REJ 35 WNW PHP 9V9 MSP ESC ANJ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HUL 25 W 3B1 20
   N MPV 10 N ART ...CONT... 50 W CLE 35 NW CMH 35 SSE DAY 45 S MIE 55
   SSE CGX 15 E MMO 25 S MLI 20 ENE TOP 30 ESE DDC 15 ENE TCC 4CR 35
   WNW ALM 45 SE DMN ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 30 SW GBN 60 NW GBN 40 ENE
   BLH 20 NNW TRM 35 ESE PMD 25 SW NID 45 SE BIH TPH 60 SW U31 30 SSE
   TVL 25 N SAC 55 E UKI 10 SSW EKA ...CONT... 4BK 45 SE OTH 45 WNW BKE
   40 SW S80 50 SSW MSO 20 NE 3DU 45 WNW GTF 25 N CTB ...CONT... 55 NE
   63S 40 SW 63S 10 E OLM 10 W HQM.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ISN 30 S Y22
   40 NNE PHP 25 SSE PIR 20 NW BKX 15 NW STC 25 SE CMX.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 35 NNW LFK
   20 W SHV 40 ENE SHV 30 ESE MLU 55 NNE MOB 15 ESE DHN 30 NE MGR 35 W
   SAV 45 NNE CHS 20 SW OAJ 45 WSW HSE.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MT...
   
   ...WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NOW OVER WESTERN WI APPEARS TO BE JUST
   AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IA.  THIS STORM HAS
   SHOWN CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...AND MAY PERSIST FOR
   SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
   LATE MORNING...BUT DIURNAL HEATING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   MAY ALLOW STORM TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND MAINTAIN A RISK OF
   SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WI AND INTO LOWER MI.
   
   OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG TRAILING
   BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI/MN INTO IA.  AIRMASS ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   HOT/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.  MODELS
   SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON
   ALONG BOUNDARY OVER NEB...THEN DEVELOPING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CO. 
   DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   PROMOTE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN LARGER STORMS.  SUFFICIENT
   DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER
   CENTRAL/EASTERN CO MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ...MT/WY/SD...
   EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED OVER PARTS OF
    SOUTHERN MT...NORTHERN AND EASTERN WY...AND WESTERN SD.  THIS
   SHOULD AID IN WESTWARD TRANSPORT OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
   ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.  A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..HART/BANACOS.. 06/24/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z