Jun 24, 2005 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Jun 24 12:48:04 UTC 2005
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SPC AC 241244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC MKG MLI LWD CNK 30 SSE HLC 40 WNW GCK LAA PUB FCL CYS DGW SHR LVM BZN BTM 30 NNW HLN GTF 50 NE LWT MLS REJ 35 WNW PHP 9V9 MSP ESC ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N HUL 25 W 3B1 20 N MPV 10 N ART ...CONT... 50 W CLE 35 NW CMH 35 SSE DAY 45 S MIE 55 SSE CGX 15 E MMO 25 S MLI 20 ENE TOP 30 ESE DDC 15 ENE TCC 4CR 35 WNW ALM 45 SE DMN ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 30 SW GBN 60 NW GBN 40 ENE BLH 20 NNW TRM 35 ESE PMD 25 SW NID 45 SE BIH TPH 60 SW U31 30 SSE TVL 25 N SAC 55 E UKI 10 SSW EKA ...CONT... 4BK 45 SE OTH 45 WNW BKE 40 SW S80 50 SSW MSO 20 NE 3DU 45 WNW GTF 25 N CTB ...CONT... 55 NE 63S 40 SW 63S 10 E OLM 10 W HQM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ISN 30 S Y22 40 NNE PHP 25 SSE PIR 20 NW BKX 15 NW STC 25 SE CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PSX 35 NNW LFK 20 W SHV 40 ENE SHV 30 ESE MLU 55 NNE MOB 15 ESE DHN 30 NE MGR 35 W SAV 45 NNE CHS 20 SW OAJ 45 WSW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MT... ...WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NOW OVER WESTERN WI APPEARS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IA. THIS STORM HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING...BUT DIURNAL HEATING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW STORM TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WI AND INTO LOWER MI. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG TRAILING BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI/MN INTO IA. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... HOT/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG BOUNDARY OVER NEB...THEN DEVELOPING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CO. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN LARGER STORMS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CO MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS THIS EVENING. ...MT/WY/SD... EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MT...NORTHERN AND EASTERN WY...AND WESTERN SD. THIS SHOULD AID IN WESTWARD TRANSPORT OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART/BANACOS.. 06/24/2005 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |