Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 291957
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005
   
   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
   AXN 20 S BRD 35 WSW CWA 25 NW MSN 25 ESE DBQ 30 SE FOD 30 NNE SUX
   FSD ATY 55 N ATY 50 NW AXN.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100
   ENE CMX 50 NE ESC 40 ENE MKE 15 S DAY 35 NNE SDF 15 NNE BMI 10 W ICT
   10 S DDC 35 NNE GCK 55 N RSL 10 NE LNK 40 E MBG 20 NE JMS 70 NE DVL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD 25 SW NIR
   35 N PSX 15 NNE POE 25 SE PBF 20 NNE POF 20 NNW TBN 25 WNW BVO 10
   NNW CSM 40 ENE HOB 75 SW GDP ...CONT... 35 E DUG 55 NW TCS 50 NNE
   4CR 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 45 NE GJT 50 NW CAG 15 SSE RIW 30 W COD 20
   SE BTM 10 NW S80 10 WSW PUW 30 W GEG 15 NNW EAT 20 N OLM 25 NW BLI.
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN SD...THE SRN
   HALF OF MN...WRN WI...AND NRN IA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SWD INTO IN / IL
   / NRN MO / KS...
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWD TO KS / IN...
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NERN SD ATTM
   INVOF SURFACE LOW / COLD FRONT.  MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND
   UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT / ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
   EVENING.  
   
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD
   INTO MN / WRN WI / IA...ALONG AND JUST N OF 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   STREAK.  EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS
   AREA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES.  THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / ALONG AND
   N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHICH NOW LIES FROM W CENTRAL MN SEWD
   ACROSS WRN WI.
   
   OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME AS FORCING
   ALONG COLD FRONT INCREASES.  THIS WOULD ALLOW AN INCREASED THREAT
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   FURTHER S INTO KS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
   COLD FRONT...AND THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. 
   ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD...SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND THUS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS / HAIL.
   
   MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ALONG SEWD EXTENSION OF WARM
   FRONT INTO NRN IL / IN.  THOUGH SHEAR WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY WITH SEWD
   EXTENT...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
   STORMS -- PARTICULARLY THROUGH MID EVENING.
   
   ...THE NORTHEAST...
   LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND HAS
   DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. 
   HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF ERN NY / SRN
   VT / SRN NY / WRN MA...AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  DESPITE
   RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL / WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GOSS.. 06/29/2005
   
   ...NOTICE...
   THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
   SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
   WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
   IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
   CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
   WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z